Indian equities: Two powerful drivers propel long-term growth prospects

Indian equities have posted strong (year-to-date) results in 2021¹. The market’s performance comes on the back of cyclical economic recovery after a strong second wave of COVID-19 earlier in the year, as well as attractive secular economic themes. We explain how government reforms on formalisation and re-investment laid the foundation for two powerful drivers, the digital economy and manufacturing, which create synergies to propel India’s long-term economic growth.

In previous pieces, we have highlighted that the Indian economy began its structural and transformative journey in 2014. Over the past three years, this process has been strengthened with a cohesive policy framework. This started with formalisation reforms and a nationwide 4G network rollout, creating a solid foundation for growth through digitalisation. 

Then came the policy focused on promoting manufacturing. We called this policy framework the 3 Rs:

  • Recycle: Privatisation of state-owned enterprises to recycle capital;
  • Rebuild:  Tax cuts for corporates and middle-income households to boost savings), and;
  • Reinvest: Government policies to re-invest savings into domestic manufacturing. 

The economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated this transformation. On the one hand, the government has consistently focused on long-term policies under formalisation and the 3Rs framework. While on the other, Indian businesses have embraced digitalisation to counter any COVID-driven disruption. Due to the disruption of supply chains and increasing costs, growing domestic businesses have started moving to manufacturing instead of imports.  

We have already articulated that the structural changes in the Indian economy have created two powerful themes that should serve as the primary drivers of India’s medium-term growth trajectory: India’s formalisation through a digital economy and reinvestment in manufacturing (see Chart 1).

 

Chart 1: Virtuous cycle of formalisation and reinvestment 2

Cycle of reinvestment and formalisation

For illustrative purpose only.

 

First driver: formalisation leading to expansion of digital economy

India has experienced strong growth in its digital economy over the past five years. It is now at an inflection point with digital businesses attracting global capital and new listings in the public markets.

The foundation of this transformation was laid in 2014 when the government started on its formalisation reform journey with the digitization of identity records and linking it with bank accounts and mobile devices (the JAM trinity initiative)3. This has been further complemented by indirect tax reform that has plugged tax leakages.

Formalisation reforms with digitalisation are creating a virtuous cycle, driving the growth of a massive digital economy. In turn, the digital economy further propels the formalisation process by boosting productivity and market-share gains.

We have seen an exponential growth in smartphone users, estimated to reach one billion by 20254, and internet subscribers over the next five years. As users have adopted digital, so have India’s businesses, driving digital payment and e-commerce growth. Even with the recent expansion, India’s e-commerce penetration rate (as a percentage of total retail sales) still ranks low globally, leading to strong future potential growth prospects (see Chart 2 & 3). 

 

Chart 2: Digital payment growth is robust5

India Digitalisation: Digital payment growth

Chart 3: Long runway for e-commerce in India6

E-commerce penetration in India

As digitalisation and formalisation amplify each other, we have seen new digital platforms emerge that connects users and businesses using the power of smartphones and the mobile internet. Large platforms have emerged in areas where markets are traditionally fragmented, like personal services, transportation, food delivery, hospitality and pharmacies.

As these platforms help businesses grow, smaller and informal merchants are now joining the formal economy. This, in turn, has opened new avenues for fintech companies to leverage the transaction data for better credit origination, underwriting and collection. It also provides credit to new credit customers, reinforcing and perpetuating the virtuous cycle of digitalisation and formalisation.  We see this journey to a more formal and digital economy as transformational.

These developments should open a new avenue for capital allocation and may make India the next big destination for internet businesses after the US and China. Despite the strong growth seen in the past five years, overall e-commerce penetration remains low, and India’s user base is second only to China’s. 

Second driver: Reinvestment driving manufacturing growth

We believe India is at a crucial juncture where it can improve its share of manufacturing to GDP with a comprehensive policy push that we call the reinvest policy under our 3Rs framework. This comes from import substitution opportunities and the export share of products where India already has a sizeable presence - mainly as the world looks for an alternative sourcing base outside China.

To realise this opportunity, the policy framework has three pillars: 

1) A lower corporate tax rate of 15% on new manufacturing investment, one of the most competitive in Asia;  

2) A set of production-linked incentives (PLIs) designed to catalyse new investment and encourage production in India;

3) Import disincentives in sectors where there is a significant import component; 

This policy push has resulted in investments into import substitution in products where domestic consumption has reached critical mass. In turn, this should make it more viable for global brands to use India as a manufacturing base and gain a share in global exports despite the current environment of slowing globalisation. Indeed, we already see this playing out with solid growth in domestic electronics manufacturing that should lead to high export growth in 2022 (see Chart 4). 

 

Chart 4: Strong growth in domestic electronics production7

Reinvestment drives strong growth in electronics production

The PLI schemes are, by far, the government’s most focused effort to increase manufacturing’s share of GDP. Currently, the PLI programme envisages total incentives of around US$26 billion across 13 sectors over the next five years8. Mobile phones were one of the first areas to receive a major policy push from PLIs, as they have a high import dependency and a large market size. After seeing success with rising domestic production, we expect other PLI schemes to be announced in the following areas:

  • Import substitution: telecoms equipment, air conditioners;
  • Exports growth in sectors where domestic production is competitive: automobiles, pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals;  
  • New investment in emerging areas: solar PV cells, advanced chemistry cells for batteries. 

Ultimately, we believe that PLI schemes should attract significant investment and add incremental revenue to the tune of INR$35-40 trillion over the next 5 years 9, thereby improving manufacturing’s share of GDP. As this happens, this should create another virtuous cycle – added manufacturing value may raise domestic savings, improve government finances, and give the government room to support the manufacturing sector with better infrastructure and incentives.

  

Macro outlook: lower deficit, higher productivity

These two themes should feed off each other to create another virtuous cycle, creating more jobs, improving domestic savings, and enabling reinvestment in better infrastructure. Indeed, we already see the synergy of these themes driving improvement in India’s macro situation with an improving better fiscal backdrop, as a more formal digital economy leads to better tax compliance (see Chart 5).

A lower current-account deficit is the result of more high-value domestic manufacturing, while policy incentives have reduced imports and increased exports. Higher share of digital and manufacturing in the economy has also resulted in improved productivity.  

 

Chart 5: Higher tax receipts should translate to a lower budget deficit10

Indirect tax to GDP in India

This also makes India’s external accounts more resilient. India is receiving foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment inflows that exceed the current account deficit of -1%11. This leads to a healthy balance of payment surpluses and makes the country more resilient to external shocks, like a sharp increase in oil prices. Indeed, India’s foreign-exchange reserves are at an all-time high of almost US$640 billion12.

India also has limited its international borrowing, which gives us comfort on external accounts and currency even if developed-market central banks start to normalise monetary policy. Indian bonds may be included in the emerging market indices later this year. If this happens, there could be inflows of as much as US$40 billion over the next 12 months13. Given the stable rupee outlook and current 10-year bond yield of 6%, we believe that there should be limited upward pressure on yields.

Cyclically, India looks well positioned for a strong recovery in Q4 (calendar year 2021), given high-frequency indicators like goods and services tax collection are showing strong year-on-year growth. We expect that the Reserve Bank of India should keep monetary policy accommodative to support the recovery.

India also remains one of the few countries that has enough vaccine capacity to inoculate its entire population. This should further support the country’s economic recovery. Our belief is that most of the adult population has already received at least one shot, and by early 2022 we expect nearly all adult Indians to be fully vaccinated, after which India is likely to become a net exporter of vaccines (see Chart 6).

Finally, we also see opportunities in banking and financial services as domestic savings grow and new opportunities of credit deployment opens. We expect Indian households to allocate more of their savings to financial instruments like insurance and mutual funds as structural economic growth improves and inflation moderates. Indeed, flow of domestic savings to equity markets could be a big source of strength moving forward. 

As the government’s fiscal balance improves due to a more formal economy and divestment, we expect higher allocation to infrastructure and support for manufacturing through incentives. After significant restructuring of assets over the last five years, Indian corporate balance sheets are in good shape and we expect them to invest more. This bodes well for opportunities in the Industrial sector.

 

Conclusion

We expect powerful thematic drivers and their interplay to raise India’s economic growth potential and make it structurally more resilient. As reforms made through formalisation and the promotion of manufacturing, and the subsequent macro impact, become more visible, we believe these factors should drive economic growth and earnings with room for the cost of capital to fall.

Over the next 12 months, we expect significant opportunities for public-market investors to participate in the digitalisation theme with more equity listings from consumer technology, health technology, and fintech businesses. This represents a tremendous opportunity and a long growth runway for internet companies. Over the next year, we expect to see multiple large platforms go public. 

 

Chart 6: India has adequate local vaccine supply14

India’s COVID-19 vaccine supply

1 Source: Bloomberg.  2 Source: Manulife Investment Management. 3 The JAM trinity leveraged telecom infrastructure to use cash and paper less, bringing unbanked individuals into the formal economy. The proliferation of private investment in India’s 4G network since 2016 amplified this impact, which has driven 4G availability nationwide to near 99%. Source: https://www.gsma.com/membership/resources/upgrades-in-mobile-speeds-in-india-come-with-expanded-4g-availability/ 4 Source: Statista, Kotak Institutional Equites, September 2021 5 Source: RBI, NPCI, Government, Companies, Jefferies, September 2021 6 Source: Euromonitor, JP Morgan, September 2021 7 Source: MeitY, Kotak Institutional Equities, September 2021   8 Source: India Brand Equity Foundation, as of 27 July 2021. 9 Source: Crisil.  10  Source: CEIC, Kotak Institutional Equities, September 2021. 11 Source: Reserve Bank of India, as of 30 September 2021. 12 Source: Bloomberg, as of 12 October 2021. 13 Source: Reuters, as of 12 October 2021. 14 Source: Media reports, Manulife Investment Management estimates. Note: Only Covishield and Covaxin supplies considered, India’s requirement calculated only for adult population

A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other preexisting political, social, and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates may adversely affect the value of a portfolio’s investments.

The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of, Manulife Investment Management as of the date of this publication and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only as current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers, or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment, or legal advice. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. We draw on more than a century of financial stewardship to partner with clients across our institutional, retail, and retirement businesses globally. Our specialist approach to money management includes the highly differentiated strategies of our fixed-income, specialized equity, multi-asset solutions, and private markets teams, along with access to specialized, unaffiliated asset managers from around the world through our multimanager model. 

These materials have not been reviewed by and are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by the following Manulife entities in their respective jurisdictions. Additional information about Manulife Investment Management may be found at  manulifeim.com/institutional.

Australia: Hancock Natural Resource Group Australasia Pty Limited, Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Brazil: Hancock Asset Management Brasil Ltda. Canada: Manulife Investment Management Limited, Manulife Investment Management Distributors Inc., Manulife Investment Management (North America) Limited, Manulife Investment Management Private Markets (Canada) Corp. China: Manulife Overseas Investment Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited Company. European Economic Area and United Kingdom: Manulife Investment Management (Europe) Ltd.which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityManulife Investment Management (Ireland) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland Hong Kong: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Indonesia: PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia. Japan: Manulife Investment Management (Japan) Limited. Malaysia: Manulife Investment Management (M) Berhad (formerly known as Manulife Asset Management Services Berhad) 200801033087 (834424-U). Philippines: Manulife Asset Management and Trust Corporation. Singapore: Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration No. 200709952G). South Korea: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Switzerland: Manulife IM (Switzerland) LLC. Taiwan: Manulife Investment Management (Taiwan) Co. Ltd. United States: John Hancock Investment Management LLC, Manulife Investment Management (US) LLC, Manulife Investment Management Private Markets (US) LLC, and Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc. Vietnam: Manulife Investment Fund Management (Vietnam) Company Limited.

Manulife Investment Management, the Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates, under license.

PPM 544360

Rana Gupta

Rana Gupta, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, India Equity Specialist

Manulife Investment Management

Read bio