Discipline in volatile markets is key for multifactor ETF investors

Times of extreme market volatility can be unnerving for investors, but in stressful times, changing a long-term investment plan can undermine investors' ability to achieve their investment goals. For investors in multifactor exchange-traded funds (ETFs), we believe it’s important to maintain a long-term and consistent focus in turbulent times. The size, value and profitability premiums targeted by multifactor funds can materialize quickly, rewarding disciplined investors who are well positioned to capture them. 

The folly of factor timing

For nearly four decades, Dimensional Fund Advisors has used a systematic approach based on theoretical and empirical research to pursue higher expected returns.

Consistent with valuation theory, research has identified three reliable long-term drivers of the cross-sectional differences in expected stock returns: company size, relative price¹ and profitability.² Based on this research insight, we build broadly diversified portfolios around these proven factors by systematically emphasizing stocks with higher expected returns (those with smaller market capitalization, lower relative prices and higher profitability) and deemphasizing stocks with lower expected returns (those with larger market capitalization, higher relative prices and lower profitability). Manulife Multifactor ETFs are similarly designed to emphasize stocks with higher expected returns.

Long-term drivers of stock returns:

Company size Relative price Profitability
Small vs. large companies Value vs. growth companies High vs. low profitability companies
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors.

We're often asked if it’s possible to time factors successfully. Factors such as size, value and profitability have delivered outperformance over long time periods, and we expect positive premiums every day, while we recognize that realized premiums can be negative over any given time period. However, there's little evidence to suggest that investors can reliably predict when specific factors will underperform or outperform. In fact, investors may be worse off by moving in and out of factors because the cost of missing the premiums, when they do materialize, can be high. We believe that for long-term investors, building a diversified portfolio with a consistent focus on the long-term drivers of expected return is the best way to capture the premiums associated with those factors. 

Markets—and factors—can turn quickly

Lack of discipline in volatile markets may deepen the damage of a market downturn. Ultimately, investors' outcomes are the result of not just market events, but their reactions to those events. Sharp drawdowns in the market are unsettling, but historically, overall U.S. equity returns following sharp downturns have been positive. Lacking a long-term perspective and reacting to short-term negative performance may cause an investor to miss out on the subsequent market recovery, which could lead to suboptimal investment returns.

Much like the overall market, the performance of individual factors can change relatively quickly.

One of the best-known factors, value (relative price), has underperformed over the past decade. It’s disappointing, but not unprecedented. Negative premiums, even 10-year premiums, occur from time to time, and while the odds of realizing a positive premium are never guaranteed, they improve the longer you stay invested.

There have been previous time periods when value stocks lagged growth stocks for several years and then quickly reversed, and the so-called dot-com era provides an extreme, albeit anecdotal, example.

On March 31, 2000, growth stocks had outperformed value stocks in the U.S. over the prior 1, 5, and 10 years. Many investors at the time began to question their value strategies. However, as of March 31, 2001—one year and one market swing later— value stocks had regained the advantage over every one of those periods.  Investors who had stayed the course, despite negative short-term performance, had the opportunity to capture a positive subsequent value premium.

Multifactor ETFs can help investors navigate this challenging environment

Our expectation is that investing in proven factors will be rewarded over time, and the longer the holding period, the better the odds of outperforming. Of course, there are never any guarantees. However, we believe multifactor investing gives investors a good chance to capture performance premiums if they maintain the proper discipline.

Since there's no way to reliably time equity markets or factors successfully, Manulife Multifactor ETFs are designed to maintain consistent focus on the long-term drivers of expected returns in all market environments. Targeting multiple factors means investors can benefit from the low probability of all factors being negative at the same time, and consistently targeting each premium means investors will be well positioned to capture the premiums when they're positive.

For investors in multifactor ETFs that pursue the long-term premiums associated with the size, value and profitability factors, we believe discipline is key. Investors who maintain consistent exposure, even through volatile markets, stand the best chance to reap the potential rewards of a multifactor approach.

 

Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC
Dimensional Fund Advisors

 

1 Relative price as measured by the price-to-book ratio; value stocks are those with lower price-to-book ratios. 

2 A company's operating income before depreciation and amortization, minus interest expense, scaled by book equity.

The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information. Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Investment Management Limited, Manulife Investment Management, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.

Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, the Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates under license.

Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC is the sub-advisor to the Manulife ETFs. Neither Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC nor its affiliates is affiliated with Manulife Investment Management or any of its affiliated entities. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP receives compensation from Manulife in connection with licensing rights to the Indexes. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP does not sponsor, endorse, or sell, and makes no representation as to the advisability of investing in, the Manulife ETFs. Manulife ETFs are managed by Manulife Investment Management.

“Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., DFA Australia Limited, Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC, Dimensional Fund Advisors Pte. Ltd., Dimensional Japan Ltd., and Dimensional Hong Kong Limited. Dimensional Hong Kong Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activities only and does not provide asset management services.

Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC

Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC

Dimensional Fund Advisors

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