Gloom and uncertainty seem to have become the defining features of the global economy of late, but the Canadian economy finds itself in a rare bright spot where it should be the envy of many policymakers—growth is surprising to the upside, inflation is on track, and trade activity is contributing to GDP.
This, however, is no mean feat. According to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, the country hasn’t produced this level of upside surprise since 2007; a sharp contrast from the U.S. experience.¹ Q2 GDP in Canada is now expected to rebound heartily from the weakness recorded in previous quarters, with estimates closing in on 3.00%—significantly higher than the Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) estimate of 2.30%.²
Over the next three months, we expect
- the Canadian curve to continue to flatten as the central bank keeps rates on hold for the rest of 2019, even if and when the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
- a stronger Canadian dollar that will see it trade between the 1.28 to 1.32 band against the U.S. dollar.³
How has Canada managed to do so well against a backdrop of deteriorating global fundamentals? In my view, the short answer is that it has imported what’s good with the global economy (i.e., low rates) and managed to mostly avoid the fallout stemming from the “uncertainty shock” related to U.S.-China trade tensions—so far. It’s a combination that’ll continue to benefit Canada for the next three to six months, giving the BOC an opportunity to stay on the sidelines for a while.
Looking at the bigger picture, it’s also clear to us that Canada is benefiting from five key economic developments:
- Monetary policy is simply less restrictive. Canada’s still operating with negative real rates, unlike the United States, and will likely stay that way for some time.
- Despite a neutral central bank, Canada has imported, and benefited from, the global drop in yields; as a result, market-based rates have fallen for the Canadian household. That’s provided support for retail sales activity in the country and helped to stabilize mortgage credit activity. We expect housing activity will also reaccelerate shortly.
- The Canadian job market has been exceptionally strong, not only in terms of quantity, but also in terms of quality. The country has already added more jobs in the first six months of the year than in all of 2018. It’s worth noting that these are mostly full-time, private sector positions that helped to push wage growth to 3.60% in June from a year ago (compared with 3.10% in the United States). This is, once again, supportive of consumption activity.
- Business confidence is slowly improving, supported by the (near) ratification of the United States-Mexico- Canada Agreement and positive developments in the energy/pipeline sector. Clearly, the weakness we saw in Canadian business confidence last year didn’t slow hiring in the country, as it has more recently done in the United States. While investment has remained somewhat weak in the past year, we did see a sizable improvement in the first quarter, which is a trend we expect to continue.
- Export activity has rebounded sharply in the second quarter and is now expected to contribute significantly to Q2 growth. Depending on June figures, trade could add as much as four full percentage points to GDP. While much of that can be attributed to the “base effect,” and some of the rebound we’re seeing could unwind in Q3, it does suggest that Canadian trade hasn’t trailed off as a result of U.S.-China trade tensions.
From a monetary policy perspective, however, all these constructive developments land the BOC in a tricky spot: Growth looks better, and inflation is right on target—actually, it’s above target. For an inflation-targeting, single-mandate central bank, the inflation outlook alone would suggest that the central bank should have a neutral-to-hawkish stance; indeed, in a different global environment, we should be looking at a rate hike. But Canada isn’t an island, and it has to approach monetary policy within the global context.
There are, in our view, two important factors that are worth considering:
- Global central banks have almost universally made a dovish pivot on fears of global trade weakness and elevated levels of uncertainty. In what’s increasingly looking like a currency race to the bottom, Canada—or, more specifically, the Canadian dollar—can’t afford to stick out as an excessive hawkish outlier. USDCAD has already fallen by over 3.00% in the past six weeks.1 This is fundamentally why we believe BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will continue to maintain a dovish tone even if the outlook appears favorable.
- Although economic upsides have materialized over the course of Q2, there’re still sizable downside risks facing the Canadian economy, namely a deteriorating U.S. outlook that’s likely to drag Canadian growth lower, albeit with a time lag. When U.S. weakness begins to filter through, the BOC will need to respond. From our perspective, that suggests rate cuts in 2020, but not before.
Few can deny that the Canadian economy represents a rare bright spot in the global economy at the moment. Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts because the dark clouds could return within a couple of quarters. The sunny spell should last long enough to allow Canadian assets to sparkle brightly, even if only for a time.
1 Bloomberg, July 9, 2019. 2 Bank of Canada, July 10, 2019. 3 Manulife Investment Management, July 10, 2019.
Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates may adversely affect the value of a portfolio’s investments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of, Manulife Investment Management as of the date of this publication, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only as current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information. Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management.
Manulife Investment Management
Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. We draw on more than 150 years of financial stewardship to partner with clients across our institutional, retail, and retirement businesses globally. Our specialist approach to money management includes the highly differentiated strategies of our fixed-income, specialized equity, multi-asset solutions, and private markets teams—along with access to specialized, unaffiliated asset managers from around the world through our multimanager model.
These materials have not been reviewed by, are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by the following Manulife entities in their respective jurisdictions. Additional information about Manulife Investment Management may be found at www.manulifeim.com/institutional.
Australia: Hancock Natural Resource Group Australasia Pty Limited, Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Brazil: Hancock Asset Management Brasil Ltda. Canada: Manulife Investment Management Limited, Manulife Investment Management Distributors Inc., Manulife Investment Management (North America) Limited, Manulife Investment Management Private Markets (Canada) Corp. China: Manulife Overseas Investment Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited Company. European Economic Area and United Kingdom: Manulife Investment Management (Europe) Ltd. which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Manulife Investment Management (Ireland) Ltd. which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland Hong Kong: Manulife Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited. Indonesia: PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia. Japan: Manulife Asset Management (Japan) Limited. Malaysia: Manulife Investment Management (M) Berhad (formerly known as Manulife Asset Management Services Berhad) 200801033087 (834424-U) Philippines: Manulife Asset Management and Trust Corporation. Singapore: Manulife Investment Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration No. 200709952G) Switzerland: Manulife IM (Switzerland) LLC. Taiwan: Manulife Investment Management (Taiwan) Co. Ltd. Thailand: Manulife Asset Management (Thailand) Company Limited. United States: John Hancock Investment Management LLC, Manulife Investment Management (US) LLC, Hancock Capital Investment Management, LLC and Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc. Vietnam: Manulife Investment Fund Management (Vietnam) Company Limited.