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The U.S. Econometer

The Manulife Investment Management Global Macro team's gauge of where we stand in the U.S. business cycle—updated exactly when it matters to investors

Updated on June 15, 2023

Initial job claims

Initial jobless claims has suddenly and expexpectedly jumped. With many other leading indicators in the red, is this the tipping point for the U.S. economy?

June 15, 2023

May 8, 2023

Which indicator has changed?

[Brief background on the indicator; what does the change in that specific indicator tell us about what’s happening in the economy; historically, what has that indicator told us?]

Initial jobless claims

On June 15^th, 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest weekly report on jobless claims. The number came in at 450,000, well-above expectations for 300,000 and a significant increase from the 200,000 average that we saw over the previous 8 weeks. This was a shocking number for all sorts of reasons.

Initial jobless claims is one of the most-watched reports every week, and, along with non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, gives us an in depth view of the U.S. workforce and how it’s faring through the economy. It’s a leading indicator as, in the past, it tends to turn downwards 3-6 months before the beginning of U.S. recessions.

How does the change in the indicator affect our outlook

[where are we in the cycle? what other stats are we watching closely now? what risk factors might change our view]

As we’ve said recently, the job market has been the biggest question mark in the U.S. economy. As we’ve seen other leading indicators go from green to yellow to—in many cases—red, the job market has been the main holdout. A combination of labor shortages and strong consumer demand has kept the job market surprisingly resilient, but with this most recent jobs print, the jobs market is now firmly in the red.

This change gives us further belief in our view that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession by the end of 2023. With this latest development, the only leading indicators that are not flashing red are investment grade corporate spreads and financial conditions.

All this said, we’re continuing to keep a watchful eye on the more granular data as it pertains to jobs. Number of hours worked , wage growth and the quit rate are very useful—albeit much less popular—data sets that help us determine the state of the American worker. Those stats have not fallen as much lately.

Frances Donald

Global Chief Economist and Strategist

Find out more about Frances and her views

Dominique Lapointe

Global Macro Strategist

Find out more about Dominique and his views

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Global macro outlook

The global macro team's quarterly views on the future of markets and the economy

Read our latest macro outlook

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March 20, 2023

Assessing the contagion risk from ongoing banking concerns to Asia

Sue Trinh, Former Co-Head, Global Macro Strategy, Multi-Asset Solutions Manulife Investment Management

Trouble in the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic has sparked fears of broader contagion. To what extent will these developments affect Asia's economies? Read more.

April 18, 2023

The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro

Frances Donald, Former Global Chief Economist and Strategist Manulife Investment Management

Erica Camilleri, CFA, Senior Global Macro Analyst, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management Manulife Investment Management

With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.

November 1, 2022

Turmoil in the United Kingdom: what happened in British bond markets could happen in Canada

Jean-Francois Giroux, FRM, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Head of Liability-Driven Investments—Canada, Multi-Asset Solutions Team Manulife Investment Management

Emilie Paquet, FSA, Head of Strategic Initiatives and Innovation, Multi-Asset Solutions Team Manulife Investment Management

The U.K. bond market has been left in turmoil in recent weeks, with pension plans using leveraged liability-driven investing (LDI) strategies bearing the brunt of a massive sell-off of government bonds—or gilts. We look at the causes of the collapse, and, given the widespread use of LDI strategies among Canadian plans, whether the same thing could happen in Canada.

Important disclosures

A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange-trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment.

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates may adversely affect the value of a portfolio’s investments.

The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Neither Manulife Investment Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment or legal advice. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management is the global wealth and asset management segment of Manulife Financial Corporation. We draw on more than a century of financial stewardship to partner with clients across our institutional, retail, and retirement businesses globally. Our specialist approach to money management includes the highly differentiated strategies of our fixed-income, specialized equity, multi-asset solutions, and private markets teams—along with access to specialized, unaffiliated asset managers from around the world through our multimanager model.

This material has not been reviewed by, is not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by the following Manulife entities in their respective jurisdictions. Additional information about Manulife Investment Management may be found at manulifeim.com/institutional

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Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates under license.

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The U.S. Econometer

Updated on June 15, 2023

Initial job claims

June 15, 2023

June 15, 2023

May 8, 2023

May 8, 2023

Which indicator has changed?

Initial jobless claims

How does the change in the indicator affect our outlook

Frances Donald

Dominique Lapointe

Portfolio review

Global macro outlook

Read more from the Multi-asset solutions team

Assessing the contagion risk from ongoing banking concerns to Asia

Confirmed.
Welcome back.