Forgot your password?

Please enter the email address you used when registering.

Invalid email
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while validating your email address. Please try again.

Email sent

Please check your email for password reset instructions.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Two-step verification

In order to change your password, we need to verify your identity. We have sent an authorization code to the email address on file.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Two-step verification

Enter the 6-digit code sent to your email

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Please create a new password

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.
  • Must be at least 9 characters long
  • Must have at least one capital letter
  • Must have a number
  • Must have a special character
  • Cannot contain any characters that repeat more than twice
  • New passwords fields must match

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Password successfully reset.

Two-step verification

In order to change your phone number, we need to verify your identity. We’ll send an authorization code to your email on file

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Please enter you new phone number

Invalid number
Invalid country code
Number is too short
Number is too long
Invalid number
Invalid number
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while registering your account. Please try again.

Your account phone number has been changed successfully

Invalid login

Enter your password to login.

Invalid email
Invalid email
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.
Forgot password?

Two-step verification

To verify your identity, we need to send an authorization code to the email address on file.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Two-step verification

Enter the 6-digit code sent to your email

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.
Resend the email

Confirmed.
Welcome back.

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Please enter a valid phone number.

We need a phone number to keep your account secure. We'll send you a code to validate your phone number right now.

Invalid number
Invalid country code
Number is too short
Number is too long
Invalid number
Invalid number

Forgot your password?

Please enter the email address you used when registering.

Invalid email
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while validating your email address. Please try again.

Email sent

Please check your email for password reset instructions.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Two-step verification

In order to change your password, we need to verify your identity. We have sent an authorization code to the email address on file.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Two-step verification

Enter the 6-digit code sent to your email

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Please create a new password

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.
  • Must be at least 9 characters long
  • Must have at least one capital letter
  • Must have a number
  • Must have a special character
  • Cannot contain any characters that repeat more than twice
  • New passwords fields must match

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Password successfully reset.

Two-step verification

In order to change your phone number, we need to verify your identity. We’ll send an authorization code to your email on file

An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later.

Please enter you new phone number

Invalid number
Invalid country code
Number is too short
Number is too long
Invalid number
Invalid number
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while registering your account. Please try again.

Your account phone number has been changed successfully

Enter your email address

Invalid email
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while validating your email address. Please try again.
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Number is too short
Number is too long
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Passwords do not match
An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login Your account has been temporarily locked because of too many failed login attempts. Please try again later. The code entered has expired. Please request a new code to continue. The code entered is not valid. Please request a new code to continue. Email address format is not valid. Your account has not been verified. Please check your email for instructions on how to verify your credentials. Your account has been disabled. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Invalid login This account has reached its limit for daily password resets. Please try again in 24 hours. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. That password was recently used. Please enter a new one. Password is not strong enough. Password cannot contain any forbidden words. Password is a commonly used password. Password cannot contain common words. Password cannot contain repeating characters. Password cannot contain sequence of characters. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. The account information you provided does not match our records. This account is not authorized to perform the request you've initiated. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. Password does not meet password strength requirements. Please try again. An error occurred while processing your request. Please try again later. An error occurred while registering your account. Please try again.

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Transitioning to India’s next stage of growth

Top-down structural reforms in India since 2014 gave rise to key growth drivers such as formalization, digitization, and a manufacturing resurgence. As new growth drivers emerge, we’re witnessing a paradigm shift in the country’s commercial environment.

Introduction  

Amid a rapidly shifting global landscape dominated by growing geopolitical tensions and shifting supply chains, India is also changing.

The country’s evolution since 2014 has already resulted in a paradigm shift driven by deliberate and targeted policies. The Indian economy embarked on a structurally transformative journey when a raft of critical policies laid the foundation for a new economic direction. Indeed, government-led reforms have paved the way for a dynamic long-term growth trajectory driven by three key forces: formalization, digitization, and a manufacturing resurgence.

We believe that the interaction between these drivers is starting to structurally enhance India’s macroeconomic resilience, leading to a stronger fiscal account and better external account dynamics. The possibility of structurally lower inflation should reinforce the virtuous growth cycle. Overall, these developments should transform the Indian economy, making it more formal, digital, efficient, capex driven, and resilient. It should also raise productivity and India’s ability to generate local capital and absorb more global capital.

And with these economic changes, the investment opportunity set has also evolved. We take a closer look at the policies and reforms put in place and examine the foundation that’s been built on the back of these programs. We also provide greater detail on future growth by diving into the following areas:

  • How India’s improved digital and physical infrastructure amid a more formalized economy creates new commercial opportunities;
  • How domestic manufacturing is becoming incentivized and capex is improving in certain segments, leading to import substitution and the possibility of higher exports;  
  • Why industry consolidation and disruption in the economy are simultaneously at play;
  • Where and why urbanization is likely to deepen;
  • How the right policies are helping India achieve the energy transition;
  • How a declining fiscal and current account deficit, along with range-bound inflation, can provide a strong macro backdrop that makes India’s growth drivers scalable and sustainable;  
  • Finally, we explain how these emerging growth drivers, which we call the “five Ds”—digitization, deglobalization, decarbonization, demography, and deficit reduction—could reshape the country’s commercial environment across diverse sectors.

Given the current market and investment environment, we seek to explain why investors should consider Indian equities to participate in the country’s long-term growth story amid policy continuity and a stable regulatory environment. Overall, we think the asset class presents sizable and sustainable growth opportunities at an uncertain time when both the global growth and corporate earnings environment remain volatile.

Sections

The foundation

Historically, the Indian economy comprises less formal and mostly informal segments, with the latter being primarily cash driven with minimal government regulation. Due to the structure of the informal economy, we believe inefficiencies were high and productivity was low. In our view, this was a key bottleneck in India’s economic development.

The initial policies and reforms established in 2014 (when the current government was first elected to office) have crystalized the shift from the informal economy to a formalized one,  positioning India for its next stage of growth.

Key government reforms, 2014–2023

A timeline summarizing the steps taken over the past nine years that transformed the Indian economy, positioning it for growth. Between 2014 and 2015, the government introduced the JAM Trinity, which provided citizens with biometric identity cards that is linked to bank accounts and a mobile number. In 2016, the government reformed the country's Goods and Services Tax and introduced the Real Estate Regulation Act and the Indian Bankruptcy code. The government also embarked on a demonetization program which did away with bank notes and cash of smaller denomination. In 2020, the country introduced Production Linked Incentive schemes to boost domestic manufacturing and raised import duties.
Source: Manulife Investment Management analysis, August 2023.

It’s crucial to recognize that India’s current growth drivers stem from deliberate and targeted policies that have been implemented since 2014. The first step in the transformative journey began with the introduction of the JAM Trinity,1 which created a system that provided every Indian citizen with a national identity number and a linked bank account. This process eliminated leakages in government welfare payments, ensuring that money went where it was supposed to.

This was followed by several reforms and policies, including the introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (GST). The government didn’t have sufficient information on transactions to collect taxes from unregistered businesses and companies. The GST unified India’s tax system, and businesses had to register and report all transactions to the government, increasing transparency.

As informal businesses entered the formal economy, they were required to register and pay taxes. This also enabled them to show banks and other financial institutions proof of business results, making it easier for them to apply for loans. This facilitated businesses operating in the cash-based economy to participate in India’s growth and also increased efficiency over time. While cash usage didn’t maintain a consistent reduction after demonetization, it has declined in recent years.

Cash in circulation (CIC) as a percentage of GDP (%)
Simple chart showing the amount of cash in circulation in India expressed as a percentage share of GDP between 2000 and data available as of July 2023. The chart shows that the volume of cash in circulation has fallen steeply since 2020.

Source: CEIC, the Reserve Bank of India, Kotak Economics Research estimates, July 2023. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

As a result, the government was able to increase tax revenue despite offering tax incentives for domestic manufacturing. This improved the country’s fiscal position and allowed for critical investment in physical infrastructure.

Formalization laid the foundation for the growth of the digital economy, leading to better productivity and robust growth in tax collection, enabling the government to gradually increase spending without risking a more significant fiscal deficit. 

Formalization and digitization driving change
Simple infographic showing how formalization of the Indian economy laid the foundation for the growth of the country's digital economy, leading to better productivity and robust growth in tax collection, enabling the government to gradually increase spending without risking a more significant fiscal deficit.

Source: Manulife Investment Management analysis, August 2023. For illustrative purposes only.

Crucially, resources available from these actions allowed the government to increase its capex on developing physical infrastructure and provided incentives for domestic production, factors that are imperative to improving India’s manufacturing share of GDP. Indeed, the focus has been on creating infrastructure, boosting investments, and incentivizing production over consumption. We believe such steps will structurally moderate inflation.

A growing digital economy gradually turned the informal sector into a formal one. In turn, a more formal economy depended on formal credit rather than cash for expansion.

Other key reforms, such as the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, also built a strong foundation for enhancing India’s potential growth. 

Building on these reforms, the government announced policies to boost manufacturing’s share of GDP. In 2019, the corporate tax was reduced from 30% to 22%, with a preferential lower rate (15%) for newly established manufacturing companies. The aim was twofold: driving domestic investment in manufacturing while attracting foreign direct investment to help diversify the production bases of multinational corporations looking to participate in the “China plus one” strategy.

Lower tax rates boosted India’s competitiveness
Simple infographic illustrating how India's tax rate has changed since 2019 and how it compares with its competitors in Asia. In 2019, the corporate tax was reduced from 30% to 22%, with a preferential lower rate (15%) for newly established manufacturing companies.

Source: Bloomberg, KPMG, as of September 24, 2019. Special rate refers to the preferential tax rate for manufacturing companies incorporated after October 1, 2019, and those that began production before March 31, 2023.

Another critical policy push was the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, designed to increase onshore manufacturing capacity and drive import substitution. Targeted segments included mobile phones and white goods, such as air conditioners.

Manufacturing incentives changing the commercial and economic landscape
Simple infographic highlighting factors changing the commercial and economic landscape, namely, urbanization, credit expansion, and a higher level of savings.

Source: Manulife Investment Management, August 2023. For illustrative purposes only.

In segments where Indian exports were traditionally strong, the PLI scheme would help drive export growth in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and chemicals. Emerging sectors in which the PLI scheme could help drive new investment included high-efficiency solar photovoltaic modules and advanced chemistry cell battery storage. Additionally, import disincentives were enacted to promote new domestic manufacturing investments.

The transition

The fusion of the structural reforms since 2014 in the Indian economy has created the two powerful themes we highlighted previously: formalization and reinvestment in manufacturing. They’ve featured consistently in our investment analysis since 2020. 

India’s virtuous growth cycle
Simple infographic showing how improved infrastructure (physical and digital), credit expansion, urbanisation, lower inflation, digital disruption, and industry consolidation has formed a virtuous growth cycle that could contribute to sustainable growth and lower current account deficit.

Source: Manulife Investment Management, August 2023. For illustrative purposes only.

These primary growth drivers have started to perform strongly over the past few years. We already see a substantial uptick in private and government capex as reinvestment-led policies drive more investment in India. The investment in physical infrastructure has created an environment that’s conducive to manufacturing in India, leading to fewer imports and more export-led growth.

Capex has experienced significant growth on the back of reforms
Simple bar chart showing how capital investment in India has grown between fiscal year 2019 and fiscal year 2023, and expectations for fiscal year 2024.

Source: CEIC, Capitaline, I-SEC Research, June 2023. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

As an example, policy-led initiatives have underpinned the solid growth of the electronics sector, particularly in mobile phone production, which has grown at a 61%  compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in terms of value since fiscal year (FY) 2015. Indeed, India has transitioned from being a net Importer of mobile phones to a net exporter: Mobile phone exports exceeded US$10 billion in FY2023, compared to peak imports of around US$8 billion in FY2015.

Strong increase in the value of mobile phone manufacturing in India
Bar chart showing a strong increase in the value of mobile phone manufacturing in India from 2015 to 2022

Source: Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, Investec Securities Research, July 2023.

India has transitioned to a net mobile phone exporter 
Bar chart showing import and exports of mobile phones into India between fiscal year 2015 and fiscal year 2023, as of July 2023. The chart shows that India has transitioned from being a net Importer of mobile phones to a net exporter as of fiscal year 2020.

Source: Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, Investec Securities Research, July 2023. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

Similarly, digitization and formalization have reinforced each other, leading to robust growth in digital payments, a rise in digital footprint, and improved tax compliance. This has translated into strong tax collection, with GST growing at a 26% CAGR over the past two years.

Digital retail payments as a percentage of GDP have experienced strong growth since FY2017 
Simple line chart of digital retail payments expressed as a share of GDP in India between fiscal year 2017 and data available as of March 2023. The chart shows that digital payments, when expressed as a percentage share of GDP,  has more than quadrupled during the period.

Source: The Reserve Bank of India, NPCI, government, companies, Jefferies, March 2023. *Annualized figures.

Higher tax compliance driving strong growth in government revenues
Simple chart showing how government tax revenue collection has grown since 2017, using 107 as a baseline.

Source: Ministry of Finance, Morgan Stanley Research, as of May 2023.

Primary growth drivers should gradually improve India’s macroeconomic resilience

Overall, we believe these drivers have started to structurally improve India’s macroeconomic resilience through an improved fiscal position (from increased tax collection) and external account dynamics (higher net exports). Structurally lower inflation should reinforce the virtuous growth cycle.

These developments should transform the Indian economy, making it more formal, digital, efficient, capex oriented, and resilient. It’ll likely also raise productivity and enhance India’s ability to generate local capital and absorb more global capital.

Furthermore, we believe these drivers’ interaction with current macro and global forces is creating new themes and opportunities that should improve India’s productivity and growth in the coming years:

  • Improved physical and digital infrastructure creates new market access channels, expands the total addressable market, and improves efficiencies. These developments are lowering customer acquisition and servicing costs. The Indian corporate sector’s intentions to build on those efficiencies through further investments are rising due to market expansion and lower costs in accessing the same.
  • A more formal and digital economy results in a stronger digital footprint across financial transactions. This expands financial inclusion and credit access, along with strong asset quality. Easier credit access is changing investment and consumption patterns.
  • As India formalizes and transforms, we’ll likely see market share consolidate, leading to the creation of larger, better-managed companies, especially for asset-intensive businesses. We should also witness market disruption by innovative companies that are able to leverage these gains, especially in consumer and financial services.
  • Better infrastructure, capex, and industrialization will likely promote more urbanization, driving growth in real estate and allied industries.
  • With rising urbanization, consumers are increasingly opting for feature-rich products in various industries: autos, home, white goods, or electronics. With the growth in corporate and government capex, they can now opt for feature-rich products that connect their physical and digital worlds. In short, the level of domestically produced content is increasing. Previously, India would import most of it, but thanks to PLI, a part of such spending is now captured by companies setting up plants to cater to the burgeoning demand. 

Overall, the Indian economy is undergoing a paradigm shift: from informal to formal, from cash to digital, and from import-based to domestic manufacturing. 

Meanwhile, India is upgrading its physical and digital infrastructure and focusing on the energy transition to reduce fossil fuel dependency. We believe reducing fossil fuel dependency should unleash opportunities in the energy transition process, lowering the country’s oil import bill, and further boosting the country’s macro stability.

We now take a closer look at how these developments create new opportunities for investors.

The opportunity set

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a remarkable improvement in India’s digital and physical infrastructure.

The expansion of digital infrastructure was central to the formalization process that empowered the JAM Trinity initiative and India’s digital payment revolution. Since India’s 4G rollout started in 2016, it’s gone from being a poorly covered country in high-speed wireless broadband to being fully covered with 4G with a billion smartphone users. India now has one of the highest per-subscriber data consumption levels in the world at 17GB per subscriber per month.2 Moreover, 5G network rollouts started in 2023 and will likely be completed by 2025 in major cities.

Similarly, as part of supply-side policy initiatives, we’ve seen a substantial improvement in physical infrastructure. The country has increased the pace of road construction and improved port capacity in India—a development that has eased logistical bottlenecks and reduced logistical costs.

The pace of road construction and total construction has increased
Simple bar chart showing pace of road construction and total construction have increased in India between 2014 and 2024.

Source: PIB, MoRTH, NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates, as of July 2023. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

Significantly lower average container ship turnaround time since 2012 
Simple bar chart showing the average turnaround time for container ships at India's ports from March 2012 to December 2022. The chart shows that the  average container ship turnaround time has fallen sharply during the period, with 2021 being an exception due to the impact of the pandemic.

Source: Ministry of Shipping, Kotak Institutional Equities, as of December 2022.

The start of the dedicated freight corridor in 2024 will be another landmark event that will add 7,000 kilometers of dedicated freight tracks with double-stacking technology, potentially reducing transportation costs by another 200 basis points of GDP.

Power availability for residential and industrial purposes has also significantly improved due to investments in generation, transmission, and distribution. 

Power availability has significantly improved (percent of population with access to electricity)
A simple line chart showing power availability for residential and industrial purposes between 2011 and data available as of 2021. The chart shows that power availability has risen from just below 80% in 2011 to nearly 100% in 2021.

Source: World Bank, as of 2021.

New infrastructure gives rise to novel business models and investing opportunities

Blending better physical and digital infrastructure with formalization reforms such as the GST and JAM Trinity has drastically improved India's economy's productivity and growth potential. Additionally, government initiatives, such as the unified payment interface, have triggered a rise in digital transactions and reduced hard currency usage.

Furthermore, this has increased the digital footprint of transactions, making lower-cost credit underwriting possible. This is generating new opportunities and digital-led business models in services across food, logistics, e-commerce, and financial services, just to name a few.

This also negates the network advantage of many established incumbents as an extensive digital reach, along with interoperable platforms, gives newer entrants access to many customers and an opportunity to gain market share with reduced transactional friction and costs. We envisage:

  • Hyperlocal businesses (e.g., food delivery platforms and quick commerce) can now create highly adaptive business models that transform inventory, delivery radius, and delivery partner availability at a high frequency. By harnessing data analytics from customer smartphones, these companies can react to peaks and troughs in demand.  
  • New logistics players are emerging, operating at around three times the productivity of current standards using big-data analytics and large-scale warehouses. This has further implications since lower logistical costs can deepen reach and increase addressable market size for e-commerce platforms.
  • Traditional lenders and fintech platforms are expanding the credit market by offering new loans to individuals and small businesses. By using the power of high-frequency payment data and GST records, they’re gaining market share and acquiring customers at a low cost without sacrificing credit quality. 
  • Unsecured credit has grown at around 29% CAGR between FY2019 and FY2022. Despite this, are seeing improving asset quality reported in the system. Better credit availability and India’s young demographics will likely support consumer demand, especially in the more premium, discretionary consumption space.
  • Digital insurance platforms are launching innovative products with new-age insurance companies, lowering customer costs and improving insurance penetration. 

Digital disruption in services; consolidation in asset-backed businesses

India’s economy has experienced multiple disruptions since 2017; however, as the formalization process progressed (demonetization, GST, and RERA), we’ve seen the first phase of industry consolidation where larger players in multiple sectors have gained market share as smaller/unorganized players were unable to keep up. This trend has been witnessed across real estate, building materials, passenger cars, aviation, and telecoms—sectors that typically require significant investment in fixed assets. 

At the same time, disruptors, led by new business models, are employing the efficiencies of a transforming India to take market share from incumbents in many sectors, which has been asset-light. They’re leveraging digitally led distribution as well as new manufacturing investments by harnessing manufacturing incentives.

We see categories such as air conditioners, consumer staples and discretionary (ex-auto), decorative paints, and home improvement being disrupted by platforms and direct-to-consumer brands. Incumbents have been slow to invest and have instead chosen to maximize return ratios. As a result, they’ve become the targets of new-age companies that are more innovative, efficient, and better capitalized. 

Urbanization is likely to continue

We expect the urbanization trend to continue and accelerate through primary growth drivers. As infrastructure improves amid higher capital expenditure and manufacturing investment, it’ll support more cities.

A young aspirational India seeking prosperity will likely be rewarded with higher-paying jobs as more global capital invests in the country. Over the past two years, we’ve seen services exports grow substantially as an increasing number of international companies set up knowledge outsourcing centers in India. By 2027, India is expected to surpass China as the country with the highest share of working-age population globally. According to NSSO, CEIC, and UN estimates, 10% of Indians will urbanize over the next 15 years.

India versus Mainland China: percentage of working age population
Line chart comparing India and Mainland China's share of working-age population between 1960 and (projected) 2040. The chart shows that by 2027, India is expected to surpass Mainland China before 2030.

Source: United Nations, Axis Capital, November 2021. Data beyond 2021 is an estimate. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

As housing demand increases, this will have positive implications for discretionary consumption, automobiles, and real estate. This should also benefit financials as more nuclear families drive credit demand.

Home loans are the largest credit segment (Rs billion)
Bar chart showing that home loans are the largest credit segment in India among 2W loans, CD loans, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans and business loans between 2019 and 2022.

Source: CRIF, retail loan portfolio outstanding across banks and nonbanking financial companies, as of March 2023 fiscal year ends. 2W loans refer to two-wheeler loans.

Reducing India’s dependence on fossil fuels through energy transition

Growth is energy intensive. India has traditionally relied on fossil fuels, most of which are imported. Therefore, a pivot to renewable energy is required to make growth sustainable.

To expand the country’s green energy capacity, the government has set an ambitious target of installing 596 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2032—more than three times the current installed capacity of 176GW.3 As such, the share of green energy generation is expected to almost double from approximately 23% at present to 44%.4

India has ambitious renewable energy generation targets

Year

Renewable energy generation (%)

2017

16.5

2018

17.5

2019

19.1

2020

21.2

2021

21.7

2022

21.7

2023

22.6

2032

44.3

Source: Central Electricity Authority, India, National Electricity Plan, May 2023. Renewable energy generation is expressed as a percentage of total power generation. The above information may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and the future course may be significantly different from that shown here.

To address a growing need for the power required for growth and rising concerns about climate change issues, an escalation in the manufacturing and installation of renewable energy sources has become imperative. We see an investment opportunity that could be valued at more than US$200 billion5 in this space. In our view, there’s an evolving and significant opportunity set here for asset owners (utilities) and equipment suppliers.

This relates to setting up and manufacturing renewable energy equipment. For instance, the Indian government has recently introduced a US$30 billion transmission plan.6 This initiative should be considered a crucial step towards achieving India’s production target of 596GW in non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2032.

The new transmission system should be a major catalyst ensuring a cleaner energy supply, representing 66% of the country’s overall installed power capacity by 2032. It also underlines India’s determination to meet its energy security needs while recognizing the demands of climate change goals, thereby maintaining sustainable economic growth.

We also see evolving and large opportunities in India’s power transmission and distribution sector. As renewable power generation centers are based on the availability of solar, wind, and water resources, high-voltage transmission lines will be required to transmit power over longer distances.

A robust fiscal position enables the government to provide subsidies to support the electric vehicle (EV) industry, which is becoming more rationalized. That said, EV developments are already altering the two-wheeler industry landscape. We expect profound changes across passenger vehicles, smaller commercial vehicles, and bus segments. This gives rise to several opportunities in the auto and auto-ancillaries sectors as companies become willing to embrace technological tie-ups and invest accordingly.

Emerging 5Ds should reshape the operating environment across sectors—creating winners and losers

We believe the underlying themes emerging from these primary growth drivers should likely create potential investor opportunities. At the same point, investing amid these transformative changes requires a different mindset.

These themes emerge from underlying forces that create opportunities and challenges for potential investee companies. We classify these forces under the 5Ds framework—digitization, deglobalization, decarbonization, demography, and deficit reduction. In the past decades, many of India’s prominent wealth creators capitalized on the trends arising from the inefficiencies in the economy, and we believe that future wealth creators should emerge from a crop of companies that are leveraging the emerging efficiencies of India with innovation, investments, and market positioning.

This is a paradigm shift.

We explain how, in our view, the 5Ds should drive change across a broad range of industries, look at the key sources of opportunity for investors, and highlight potential risks.  

Digital—let the cash flow

We’ve explained how digital models are disrupting large markets such as food, logistics, small loans, and insurance by reducing the cost of access for customers. These changes have, in turn, led to an increase in engagement and cross-selling.

While the disruption is visible, what’s less appreciated is the types of investments these companies have made and the scale they can cater to with relatively smaller incremental investments. We see limited merit in market concerns about lower profits or cash flow (in some cases, this could be a loss). Taking a two- to three-year view, operating leverage is likely to play out, delivering a significant rise in profits and cash flow. Moreover, due to higher rates, the ability of new entrants to further disrupt the market has been reduced.

In fact, we see risk in capital allocation. As these companies’ cash flows have a tendency to move from famine to feast, their respective management must articulate their policies, as we expect operating cash flows to be more than capex in two to three years. 

Deglobalizationreimagining supply chains

The current geopolitical environment creates opportunities for different manufacturing destinations to fill the gap as countries worldwide attempt to shore up domestic manufacturing, and Western countries try to derisk and diversify their supply chains away from Mainland China. 

Thanks to robust tax collection, India has provided tax breaks and incentives to domestic manufacturing at a time when the authorities are looking to reduce import dependency on critical infrastructure such as railways, defense, and power. At the same time, global companies are looking to substitute imports into India by domestic production and use the country as an export base to diversify their supply chains.

Both global and local trends are supportive of domestic manufacturing, and its share of value continues to grow.

We’ve detected some investor skepticism about whether India can achieve Mainland China's scale or efficiency. We posit that India’s infrastructure has significantly improved and that the goal of producing more in India, whether driven by the government, global companies, or domestic firms, is strategic.

Over time, India has become competitive in terms of both labor availability and cost. Given tight labor markets in the West, we think the manufacture of auto ancillaries, chemicals, electrical and electronics, and non-IT services in India has a long runway to grow.

We see exogenous risks to this theme, however. Other countries seeking to gain market share may let their currencies depreciate, therefore making it cheaper to produce in their markets. While it’s a risk, we see a growing ecosystem in India that should support domestic manufacturing, which might make it stickier.

Decarbonization—grow with green

It’s imperative that India diversifies its energy mix away from imported fossil fuels, which exhibit significant price volatility, to make growth sustainable. To this end, we expect substantial investment in renewable and green energy by the government, state-owned utilities, and the corporate sector.

We also see significant investment opportunities in the utilities space, where companies are redirecting cash from existing operations toward solar, wind, hydropower, and green hydrogen projects. There are other opportunities in component and equipment suppliers and transmission and distribution equipment.

We notice investors’ reluctance to participate in the utilities sector, as a significant part of these companies’ profits come from coal-fired projects. We posit that these businesses and India’s power generation capacity mix will likely change from approximately 60:40 (fossil: renewable) to 34:66 in favor of renewables over the next 10 years. In other words, we chose to look at the road ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

We also see the transition to EVs as a central theme. This is most apparent in the two-wheeler segment, but investors have doubts about four-wheelers and smaller commercial vehicles due to the current lack of charging infrastructure.

When we analyze the EV launch plans of major Indian automobile groups from 2025 onward as well as their investments and tie-ups from procuring batteries to investing in charging infrastructure, we think India’s passenger car market is positioned for disruption, which will create new leaders in the next three to five years. In short, the story played out in two-wheelers whereby challenger companies invested in new technologies and chipped away at the market share of incumbents that had been trying to protect profits and their return ratios.   

We see exogenous risks to this theme. Ultimately, the basic building block of solar power is polysilicon and that of a battery is lithium. India will be dependent on the imports of these raw materials from other geographies. That said, we believe India will continue to manage the geopolitical risks in a balanced manner and facilitate decarbonization. 

Demography—product for the top, digital for the middle, and services at the bottom

In this section, we take a look at consumer segments that we view favorably.

Opportunities for different consumption ranges
Chart showing opportunities for different consumption ranges with product for the top, digital for the middle, and services at the bottom

Source: Manulife Investment Management, August 2023.

Where the high-end consumer is concerned, we have a favorable view of firms manufacturing products that they would typically purchase, such as autos, jewelry, spirits, and real estate. We note that these sectors have consolidated, and companies' competitive positioning has improved significantly. 

Middle-end consumption in areas such as consumer durables, apparel, and food services is being massively disrupted. Newer companies are chipping away at the incumbents’ market share through product innovation and are reaching the consumer digitally, thereby increasing engagement and wallet share. We have a preference for disruptor companies with a strong digital focus. Examples would include those providing food delivery services, quick commerce, payment processing, and online insurance. 

India’s low-end segment is mainly made up of small businesses or those self-employed in the services business. Although these operations are small, they tend to have a healthy return on investment. A challenge for this segment has been the availability of capital to scale their businesses. Large banks have steered clear of writing smaller loans (i.e., loans less than INR 1 million); however, thanks to increasing digital transactions, data availability, and better infrastructure, we’ve seen costs associated with loan generation, assessment, and collection fall. This has prompted some smaller banks, nonbank lenders, and digital lenders to address this large market. We view this march toward greater financial inclusion as a positive for small businesses and their lenders.  

Deficit reduction—where will all the savings go?

We’ve stated earlier that fiscal and current account deficits are reducing, leading to higher savings. Some of the cost savings achieved can fuel growth in higher-end discretionary items, and the rest should be saved in institutions such as banks and insurance companies or invested in real estate and capital markets. We believe a structural upturn in higher-end discretionary consumption, savings institutions (banks, insurance), wealth management, and real estate has begun.

 

Savings driving economic changes
Simple infographic illustrating how higher savings can fuel growth in higher-end discretionary consumption and potentially boost investments in capital markets, real estate, and wealth-related products offered by financial institutions such as banks and insurance.

Source: Manulife Investment Management, August 2023.

We’ve discussed at length the consumption categories that we favor. Further, we believe the availability of domestic liquidity will be structurally positive for savings companies (e.g., banks and insurance), real estate, and capital markets. Local flows have indeed been a significant source of support for India’s equity markets.