MINA: Welcome to our Private Markets 2030 special miniseries, part of PEI Group’s wider editorial initiative exploring how private markets are evolving as head into the second half of the decade.

BEN: Drawing on insights from PEI’s editorial teams, alongside leading fund managers and investors, the series takes a closer look at the forces reshaping the industry, from shifting investor priorities to advances in technology and the changing global landscape.

MINA: During the course of the series, we’ll unpack how managers can adapt to these dynamics, attract capital, and deliver performance in an increasingly complex market, and what it will take to succeed in the years ahead.

In this first episode, sponsored by Manulife Investment Management, we’re delving in to how multi-product managers can seize opportunities in niche sectors that don’t fit easily into conventional buckets. We’ll explore the benefits of being able to offer diversification to LPs. And we’ll discuss how multi-product managers can share learnings and best practices across different teams as they look to improve performance.

BEN: To discuss these questions shaping the future of the real estate, infrastructure, and everything in-between, I spoke to Erin Patterson, global co-head of research and strategy, and Maggie Coleman, chief investment officer for real estate equity and co-head of global portfolio management, as well as John Anderson, global head of corporate finance and infrastructure, all from Manulife.

I’m Ben Payton with PEI Group,

MINA: And I’m Mina Tumay and this is Private Markets 2030.

[Music fades out] 

BEN: To kick-us off, I asked Erin Patterson about the macro-themes that will drive growth in private real assets over the next five years. She points to five D’s: decarbonization, digitalization, deglobalization, demographics, and democratization.

Erin

For real estate, we are looking at all of these things, but I think predominantly we're focused on starting with the macro positioning of deglobalization, lending to more regionalization, and that really guides the way we think about the choices that occupiers are making in their business decisions, where they want to be, where those hub locations are, either for industrial users, even office on a good day when they're making decisions about getting back to the office, and thinking about where they want to be most competitive. So in this de-globalization process, we are grappling with supply chain reconfiguration, new centers of gravity for demand and really paying attention to the different economies globally and the way that they are going to be interacting. There's concerns about investing in certain parts of the world, of course, but also new synergies between regions that are being created because of this de-globalization.

BEN: Maggie Coleman says LPs are paying close attention to these megatrends.

Maggie

I think the themes that Erin's talking about are certainly top of mind for, again, our private markets business, and they're really top of mind, I think, for a lot of the investors who are partners with Manulife, and they are really interested in thinking about ways that they can access exposure to these trends through the private markets channels within Manulife and within the alternative spaces. Erin mentioned deglobalization as being a key driver. We think about how we make our investment decisions to harness some of those opportunities. So we do spend a good deal of time focusing on the industrial sector as well as those adjacencies that are becoming more common and more prolific because of these trends and things like the supply chain reconfiguration has really unlocked a lot of opportunity, for example, in cold storage, industrial outdoor storage, where we are making some bets. I do think the demographic piece also is top of mind for a lot of our investors and really thinking about where is there going to be long term income growth? And so when we think about demographics, it's population movement, it's urbanization, it's changing elements to the population, meaning a lot of focus right now on the aging population.

BEN: And John Anderson says all 5 D’s are also driving investment into infrastructure. He highlights digitalisation in particular as being important for the asset class.

John

We are doing a ton of work around data centers and the development of those. And then that echoes into demand for electricity. And we're seeing unprecedented electricity demand in the United States, both from data centers, AI, all of that, as well as a tailwind from electric vehicles, solar panels on top of the house, all these kind of distributed supply, electrify the economy, which then fits into that decarbonization bit. In the United States, there's more of an opening for natural gas, but we're coming off of heavy users of coal, so we're still working down the coal fleet. And I'd say today, it's both natural gas fired power and renewable power both have roles to play because it's really all of the above in the US electrical system these days.

BEN: Of course, there’s a long-running debate about whether data centres belong in infrastructure, or real estate, or with other investment strategies. They are one example of an asset that doesn’t fit neatly into traditional buckets. I asked John whether managers are agile enough to grasp opportunities that lie in unfamiliar territory – and he reminds us that investment managers have always needed to step outside their comfort zone.

John

I think for all of us in our careers, we've always been doing things that are new. And we've been financing, for example, investing in solar power for 20 years, which seems like a long time. But in 2007, when we financed the first utility scale solar power plant, they'd only had solar panels on SkyLab. They hadn't been using them for power production. So everything that we've all been doing in our careers, there's always been an element of building on what you know and your experience with investment performance, but then adding in something new to respond to the continually evolving opportunity set. It's always been the case that what got us here won't get us there. So you're trying to prudently build on your experience, but then adapt to how it's new. And that's always been the case. And gosh, it's never been more true than now.

BEN: Maggie and Erin explain how, in the real estate space, managers also need to be adaptable as they look for new opportunities in niches of the market.

Maggie

When we talk about the move from quote unquote the traditional sectors, I often think back when I started my career many years ago, there was not as much institutional capital flowing into multifamily. So multifamily was not considered a traditional, call it real estate sector for a lot of the institutional capital. And as you saw performance start to really play out with more regional operators consolidating portfolios and multifamily got the attention of institutional capital; and we've seen how that has driven historical performance within real estate and within real assets more broadly. So I do think that we are innovators when it comes to identifying ways that we can create new niches and new ways of categorizing and looking at traditional sectors and thinking about where new sectors might emerge based on the change in use of real estate and how we occupy and how we move through our cities. And I think it's very timely right now to be having this conversation alongside infrastructure, because I think there is this more nontraditional lens that's being used across real assets. And we are seeing real estate and infrastructure play across some of the trends we just talked about, but also the way that occupiers are utilizing the built space and the built environment.

BEN: Erin agrees that all investment managers need to adapt to survive.  

Erin

I started off as an office specialist. If that was my focus today, I would be out of a job. Thank goodness that I can do other property types now. So it really is all about evolution, innovation of space, how we consume it. It reflects technology. It reflects infrastructure advancements. So I think that as we explore some of these alternative areas, or as I like to say, Maggie knows the ‘artist formerly known as niche’, the reality is we're looking at sectors that are adjacent to our traditional sectors, right?

And it's not that they behave entirely differently. They rely on a lot of the same demand drivers, supply drivers. So we can really predictively model some of the potential performance of these sectors by relying on our traditional sector research and data, which we have far more of, a far more robust history, than we have for these alternative sectors. And so I think that being a multi-asset manager like Manulife here, we have access to a lot of that data and a lot of the historical performance. We have our own internal data that we're leveraging daily to be able to identify these new opportunities and new spaces. And also, identify what the potential is for outperformance based on where we are in a given cycle.

BEN: As Erin highlights, this access to data is one of the key advantages that can help multi-product managers grasp hold of new opportunities. But does an ability to go broad come at the expense of being able to go deep? Or in other words, when it comes to emerging categories of niche assets, can multi-product managers really match the performance of specialist firms? John says Manulife’s infrastructure team solves this dilemma by working with other managers when it makes sense to do so.

John

Within infrastructure, we're sort of three quarters direct, call it 25 billion. And then we're one quarter, we commit to other managers who don't have the same capabilities we do, give us something different. And so we're both a GP and an LP. And I'd say we're always trying to capture the best of both. We really value in industrial sector specialization experience because we think that brings insight that's going to get you quicker to the target on the new thing, find the opportunity where there's three good investors, not 20 good investors, and then you get the outperformance. So we love that.

BEN: But he stresses that there are also drawbacks to being a specialist.

John

The flip side of that is if you break that in too narrowly as an investor and give someone a mandate for Purple Condos next to the Parkway. If Purple Condos next to the Parkway get overpriced, you've told them, go buy me 100 million of that, and then that might not be the thing to be buying. So we're trying to get the best of a manager or a firm that's expert in everything they do, but can also pivot between sectors and can give us advice on where do you like value? Where would you take us? So I think from an investor's perspective, we're constantly trying to get the best of both worlds.

Maggie

And similarly, across our real estate platform, we also want to harness the best of both. And in our diversified strategies, we're looking at opportunities to invest directly in real estate assets. We're also looking at partnering with those specialists through joint ventures or through platform creation to get that operational specificity, especially for some of the newer sectors that we're talking about and the innovation that's happening with the adjacent and nontraditional sectors. So we, too, want to have that ability to derisk and to manage risk through diversification, but also want to be able to identify where we want to harness that specificity for outperformance. I do think when you look across the real asset space and a multi-product manager like Manulife, you do have, I think from an alignment perspective, investors that are looking to scale with more direct or fewer partners. And so they, I think, like the idea that there is a full suite of products and a full suite of data and a full suite of thought around how do we leverage these sectors for best alignment. And so I do think investors benefit from the ability to scale across a multi-product platform and recognizing that when we talk about the thesis around these themes, we're doing it with alignment.

BEN: Erin adds that a key advantage of being a multi-product manager comes from being able to offer investors opportunities to diversify.

Erin

We talk a lot about obsessing about our customers and thinking about what the most advantageous investments are to create opportunity for our customers. And so in being a multi-product manager, we have a menu of opportunities for our clients, our investors, and our customers. And it means that as an organization, we have a deep pool of talent that covers every asset class under the sun pretty much. And we also leverage each other's expertise and experience in making the right decisions for our investors, for our clients.

The reality is if we want to invest in purple condos with black polka dots, we can. We have the expertise. We have the multi-product the breadth of experience across Manulife, where we can specialize when and where we need to. Real estate, for instance, is the great diversifier, right? So that is what investors look to to mitigate risk across their portfolio. Within real estate, we want to diversify even further. And that's not in a vacuum. We are constantly tapping other areas of the business, infrastructure, timber and agriculture, to understand what the intersections are from a research and strategy perspective.

BEN: As well as diversifying across sectors, another important benefit to being multi-product is the ability to deliver geographic diversification. Maggie and Erin explain that, in real estate, this means managers need to build highly localised expertise.

Maggie

The geographical diversifications has gotten as nuanced as the other areas that we're talking about when you talk about diversification. It's not just enough to say you're in the Sun Belt. You really now have to take a bottoms-up approach and you're identifying micro-market dynamics across the board. So there is certainly, I think, a benefit and a real shift in mindset with investors as well as our investment teams to think about geographic diversification much more granularly and much differently than they have in the past. Again, to identify where there is demand and supply imbalance in ways that we haven't seen in the past.

Erin

And that's the de-globalization, right? So when we think about mitigating risk through geographical diversification, that's even more important now. When we have regional economies working together in synergies, we want to mitigate risk by limiting our exposure to any one particular economy, any one particular demographic trend. And we are able to do that through geography. And within real estate, we also see that transforming the way that real estate is planned out, utilized in terms of new supply chains being formed, reconfigurations, and then also where people are moving to. And so when we think about the old adage of investment managers having a universe of target markets that they are focused on, we take a little bit of a different approach where we're looking at specific indicators that really call out to us and say, hey, look at this market over here, look at this submarket or micromarket, how it's working. And so it really challenges us to think out of the box and consider markets that maybe we wouldn't have considered in the past. And similarly to diversifying into alternative products, we might not have all the data at the ready, but we can use our experience and data from other peer markets, for instance, to understand what the potential of performance is there.

BEN: Diversification also means pushing out of the United States on occasion – although John still feels that in infrastructure, the best opportunities may be closest to home in the huge and diversified US market.

John

There's a lot of attractive opportunities in Europe, but it's 150 million people, including the wooly parts. It's not 300 million people with the same language and the same rule of law. You don't get the technology pickup in Europe that you do in the United States to the same extent. We would love to deploy more in East Asia, but we just don't have the rule of law and the unified market and unified language there that we do. And so for our Asia book, a lot of the investment flow is coming into the United States because it's just such a large, fragmented, multi-opportunity space. So for sure, as part of a balanced diet, we're spread all over the world, and we continue to find the United States as the most attractive market for us.

BEN: He points out there are many opportunities to diversify and find new opportunities within parts of the United States.

John

For the infrastructure program where we've been focused on the United States for 25 years. We've long had a commercial philosophy of, let's understand all 48 contiguous states very well and be looking out for the best opportunities and be happy to do smaller transactions with less competition in a novel sector that will deliver out performance. And we're happy to do three unusually good deals instead of one big one and just be at the cutting edge and avoid competition and deliver better returns. And so it's more been: do the homework on having a view about 48 different places. Then as a real live example, we're investing in community solar, which is available in about 23 states in the United States. Essentially, these are going to be more densely inhabited areas where the utility, in concert with the state electricity operator, is going to give you free access to the grid if you can put your site, put your panels close to the edge of town so that they don't have to build a transmission line. And once you do that, you're not competing for a $0. 09 wholesale cost of power. You're competing against an 18 cent delivered to the property cost of power.

So now we can go to the customer and say, how about I deliver you electricity for 15 cents? You're saving three cents off of your utility and you're going green and you're solving the problem of electrification. That's just a win-win-win for everybody. But it's not available nationwide. It's available in 23 states, and it's available site by site by site, and you've got to roll it up. You know, that's the work you're ready to do if it leads to that unusually attractive investment opportunity.

BEN: Erin notes that this type of investment can be a way for real estate to build on the foundations that infrastructure has laid.

Erin

Looking at affordability, I mean, we've got now 23 markets, apparently, that we can look into to find opportunity because you're bringing the infrastructure, you're making electricity cheaper. So for us in real estate, we're going to be more and more dependent on that infrastructure investment. That's going to be imperative to where people are going, businesses, occupiers of all real estate types. And when we think about the gateway markets 20 years ago, some of those markets are the ones that need this infrastructure investment the most to bring them current. We're thinking about not only what people need to function in today's society, but also what do buildings need from an infrastructure perspective? We're thinking power, we're thinking water, things like that. So as John's group is identifying these opportunities to better the infrastructure, we'll follow the infrastructure.

BEN: The private markets have, of course, been enjoying a long boom. Notwithstanding current headwinds with fundraising, BlackRock predicts that private markets AUM will expand from $13 trillion today to $20 trillion by 2030. I asked Maggie whether she expects growth in capital chasing opportunities to create a headache for firms in securing the best assets.

Maggie

I think it's not a headache. I think that's going to be a really exciting change and create a lot of momentum in the marketplace. So I don't see that as being a headache at all. I think that's really exciting to hear when you talk about the capital inflows into private markets. I do think that that capital represents the full spectrum of risk. And so not all of the capital will look the same or feel the same. A lot of that capital might be anticipated in private wealth channels, growing exposure from some of the offshore sovereigns, as well as the large institutional pensions and corporate pensions. So I think that all the capital that we're discussing potentially coming in by 2030 is going to look different. And so I think that allows for a lot of opportunity for best-in-class assets and best-in-class strategies. And I think that, as I said before, the capital seems to be looking for a streamline and the ability to partner with fewer managers. That's at least what we're hearing. And so I think the ability to scale with that capital is going to be really an exciting one for us.

John

I’m seeing the same thing in my sector. My customers, the infrastructure companies that we partner with and help them grow, I'm not limited by the number of opportunities. I think more capital allows us to help more good companies grow, allows us to upgrade America's infrastructure more quickly, meet the strong demand that we're seeing across these sectors and businesses. So I think there's a lot of synergy there.

BEN: One of the factors driving the rise of private markets is the growing ability of alternatives to tap into sources of private wealth. But are real assets well-positioned to compete for private wealth allocations, given that many private investors may be more familiar with liquid strategies in the public markets? Maggie says the answer is yes.

Maggie

I think we've seen, and we anticipate private wealth being a significant driver of some of that capital coming into private markets through 2030. I do think that the private wealth investor is getting much more savvy about real assets and their role in their portfolios. Manulife benefits from having both retail and retirement channels. And so in some instances, we've utilized that for our real estate strategies, but we think that there's still more growth coming. And so I do think when you look, again, globally at demand, there's a significant private wealth opportunity in Asia. There's a significant private wealth opportunity in the Middle East. And so those are areas where I think you're going to see more capital coming into those channels, to those retail channels. But it's not an easy channel to build. And I think that's where people go from nothing, and then they see what Blackstone's built and others have built. And that takes time, and it takes attention, and it takes a lot of focus and outreach for those strategies to build. And so I think we do see more of our peer set building it. But I think we anticipate it being a significant part of our growth story as well.

BEN: One of the other D’s that Erin highlighted as driving growth in private real assets is the decarbonisation trend. She says that sustainability, for Manulife, is all about ensuring a strong performance and resilience over the long term.

Erin

We want our assets across our spectrum of investments to perform. For Manulife, Manulife has a long standing commitment to sustainability. I would say sustainability is in our DNA, and we think about it in all of our investment decision making processes. When we think about the incorporation of sustainability and decarbonization into our strategy, it really does force us to at the market level, at the asset level, and be even more prudent about the type of investments we make so that we are investing into assets that are going to have that resiliency.

BEN: Meanwhile, John reminds us that the push for sustainability is driven partly by customer demand – and he says operating companies that can demonstrate good performance on sustainability will enjoy powerful advantages.

John

Data centers whose customers care about clean energy, the renewable energy companies, they know they want to report on sustainability, but they just don't have experience. What does good look like? And so our ability to come in with, here's the reporting standard that we use for our companies. If you do this, you'll be perceived and you'll be lauded as someone who's doing it the right way. And by the way, here's the first five easy things you can do. That playbook has been so useful because then they get that reinforcement from the marketplace -- that, oh, wow, that's a really good sustainability report. Then they don't see it as a chore. They see it as winning. And then you get that virtuous cycle going.

BEN: Another key opportunity looking ahead to 2030 is the rise of digitalisation in both real estate and infrastructure. Artificial intelligence, automation, machine learning and even robotics will all change how investors operate day-to-day. Erin tells us more.

Erin

I think digitalization overall emphasizes the need for us to be flexible and agile in our investment strategy. When we think about digitalization, there's multi-layers. It's the way we do work, the way we are carrying out our strategy, executing, doing our research, enhancing the data that we have access to. We rely on a lot of our own data. We rely on third-party data. That effort towards digitalization helps us aggregate a lot of that data and helps us make more strategic investment decisions. At the asset level, we have to think about, do the buildings that we own, do the buildings that we want to own, can they adapt to digitalization? Can they bring in that technology, really leverage it the way we need it to, and to continue, again, to be flexible in our strategy, flexible in our portfolio. So we are paying a lot of attention to it. When we think about what sectors we want to be in, what markets we want to be in, we really We need to think about what the capacity is for change, innovation with digitalization, because it will keep coming.

BEN: I asked her whether investment managers will end up replacing employees with AI.

Erin

I think one thing that is really important to remember is that all of the things that come along with digitalization, AI, machine learning, whatever it is, these are tools. These are not replacements for people. And especially for real estate, we need boots on the ground. I mean, we need that on the ground market intelligence that cannot necessarily be replicated by any of these digital tools, but certainly that will leverage these digital tools.

BEN: John also reinforces that digitalisation provides a major opportunity for infrastructure investors to make assets work smarter.

John

Things like opportunities to invest in making the grid smarter so that we can know exactly where electricity demand is, where we can channel things not requiring to spend three times the amount of money for a dumb grid, spend a third of the amount of money on a smart grid that's more flexible and responds better. All of the things that we're seeing around distributed generation and solar panels on the rooftop, for example, now the grid operators have fewer blackouts because there's more power supply closer to where people live and on their houses and on the edge of town. And the system operator can use that dynamically to make the system more reliable. So it's really every sector we see it changing the business and creating investment opportunities.

BEN: And Maggie says that this is another area where multi-product managers can harness the synergies between infrastructure and real estate.

Maggie

And again, I think real estate benefits from harnessing what John is talking about on the infrastructure side in terms of how we're thinking about our investment decisions and digitalization. And I mean, we're actively talking right now about, we've talked about the adjacencies, but thinking about what John is leading to in terms of where power is going, where electricity is going, and how does that then influence what we're calling a digital adjacent real estate and what needs to be there in addition to the data center and where companies want their R&D and their tech actually placed relative to those trends and some of the things that we're talking about. So it is, again, that nice complementary overlay between in front and real estate that we see happening in real time.

BEN: It’s hard to be sure of what the world will look like tomorrow, let alone in five years’ time. But Erin, Maggie and John have mapped out some of the key trends that are going to shape private real assets investing over the rest of the decade and beyond.

The five D’s – decarbonization, digitalization, deglobalization, demographics, and democratization – all pose both opportunities and risks for investment managers.

Over the next few years, we’ll find out whether multi-product managers really are best-placed to deliver superior performance. But at this stage, with the benefits of diversification and flexibility, few could deny that size matters in the world of real assets investing.

[music fades in]

MINA: Thanks again to Erin Patterson, Maggie Coleman and John Anderson from Manulife for joining us.

Stay tuned for upcoming episodes in our Private Markets 2030 miniseries, where we’ll continue exploring how private markets are evolving as we head into the second half of the decade.

To get those, make sure you’re subscribed to PEI Spotlight wherever you listen to your podcasts. This episode was reported by Ben Payton, edited by Eric Fish, and produced by Natalie Novakova, and me, Mina Tumay. Thank you for listening.

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