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Farmland market indicators

A quarterly update enabling investors to access our latest insights into global market movements at a glance.

  • Q3 update: favorable market fundamentals

    The near-term outlook is mixed: elevated row crop prices are easing alongside weakening tree nut prices amid the threat of an impending global economic downturn.

  • Corn production edging down

    Global corn production is expected to be 5% lower in MY 2022, pulled lower by declines in the U.S. and E.U. offsetting gains elsewhere.

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  • Soybean production forecast to reach historic highs

    Global soybean production is forecast to expand 10% in 2022. Robust growth in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere should easily compensate for the modest decline expected in the U.S.

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  • U.S. dollar remains strong

    U.S. dollar-maintained strength against most major currencies in Q3 2022 and should be supported by safe-haven demand and interest rate differentials into early 2023. 

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  • Corn exports move higher in Q3

    Strong growth in Brazil’s corn exports offset moderate declines in the U.S. and Argentina.

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  • Soybean exports move higher in Q3

    U.S. soybean exports outpaced the falls seen in Brazil and Argentina.

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  • Row crop prices ease lower but remain elevated

    As inflationary pressures begin to ease, row crop prices turned lower but remain at historically elevated levels.

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  • Q3 crop returns highest since 2007

    NCRIEF quarterly row crop year-over-year returns reached their highest level since Q3 2007.

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MY refers to marketing years.

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Production estimates

  • Global corn production to edge down in 2022 according to December WASDE 

    • Global corn production is forecast down 5% in MY 2022, due to declines in the U.S. and E.U.
    • U.S. production is estimated to fall 8% to 354 mil tons (MMT) in 2022
    • Brazil 2022 production is forecast to increase 9% to 126 MMT
Source: USDA WASDE, as of December 2022. 2021 is estimated and 2022 is projected. Years are marketing years. Note: Corn production is charted on a calendar year basis and updated on a marketing year basis. The corn marketing year is from September to August for the United States, from May to April for South Africa, and from October to September for China. The corn marketing year is from March to February in Argentina and Brazil. Corn production data and forecasts are updated monthly by the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE).

  • Broad-based production expansion to push global soybean production to record high in 2022

    • Global soybean production for the 2022 marketing year is expected to increase 10% to a record high of 391 MMT, with Brazil accounting for 70% of the projected increase.
    • U.S. soybean production is forecast to decrease by 3% to 118 MMT as lower yields offset a modest increase in soybean acreage (MY September 2022 to August 2023).
    • Brazilian production is anticipated to increase 20% in 2022 due to a record harvest (MY February 2023 to January 2024) to 152 MMT.

  • Source: USDA WASDE as of December 2022. 2021 is estimated and 2022 is projected. Years are marketing years. Note: Soybean production is charted on a calendar year basis and updated on a marketing year basis. The soybean marketing year is from September to August for the United States, from February to January for Brazil, and from April to March for Argentina. Soybean production data and forecasts are updated on a monthly basis by the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE).
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Exchange rates

  • USD maintains strength against most currencies

    • The U.S. dollar finished Q3 2022 strong against most competing currencies, supported by continued safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Fed.
    • The U.S. dollar appreciated 3% against the Brazilian real, 7% against the Australian dollar, 6% against the Canadian dollar, 11% against the Russian ruble, and 15% against the Argentinian peso.
    • The strong dollar improves the competitive position of both non-U.S. exporters to global markets and importers to the U.S. 

  • Source: Macrobond as of September 2022. Note: Exchanges rates are updated on a daily basis by Macrobond Financial AB.
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Exports

  • U.S. corn exports continue to trend higher in the third quarter of 2022

    • Total corn exports for the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina gained 4% in Q3 2022 on a four-quarter moving average basis, after trending slowly lower over the previous four quarters from Q2 2021’s high.
    • Exports from these major producing countries have been supported at elevated levels as Ukraine corn production is sharply lower in both area and yield due to the ongoing conflict.
    • U.S. four-quarter moving average corn exports at 15.9 MMT were 7% lower than last year and 1% lower than the previous quarter as competition from other exporters and relatively high U.S. prices have resulted in lower sales and shipments.  
    • Brazil’s four-quarter moving average exports in Q3 2022 jumped 38% from Q2 and 16% from last year to nearly 8.0 MMT, while exports from Argentina (8.9 MMT) were up 3% from last year and down 8% from Q2 due to continued dry conditions.
    • The strong dollar has favored exports from countries with weaker currencies such as Brazil and Argentina. 
  • Sources: FAS GATS, Comexstat, and Argentina Ministry of Agroindustry, November 2022. Note: Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil’s export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.

  • U.S. soybean exports continue to slide in Q3 2022

    • The global soybean outlook forecasts higher production, exports, and ending stocks.
    • On a four-quarter moving average basis of 14.7 MMT, U.S. soybean exports in Q3 2022 were up 6% from last quarter and up 4% year-over-year.
    • Exports from Brazil and Argentina slipped lower from the previous quarter.
    • The four-quarter moving average of Brazil’s soybean exports at 19.8 MMT was down 3% from both last quarter and a year ago. Argentina’s soybean exports of nearly 1.1 MMT were 10% down from last quarter and 27% lower than a year ago. 

  • Sources: FAS GATS, Comexstat, and Argentina Ministry of Agroindustry, September 2022. Note: Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil’s export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a four-quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality.
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Row crop prices

  • Prices for row crops ease lower, but remain near historically high levels

    • Inflationary pressures begin to ease, and U.S. corn, wheat, and soybean prices slid lower in Q3 2022, but remain at historically elevated levels.
    • The price of corn eased 1% lower to US$7.19 per bushel but was still 20% higher than last year, and lowered exports due to the strong dollar resulted in slightly higher domestic corn ending stocks.
    • Soybean prices decreased 7% in Q3 to US$14.97 per bushel but remained 12% higher than one year ago.
    • Wheat prices dropped 15% during the quarter but maintained a 23% premium over those one year earlier amid ongoing concerns around export crop shortages.
    • Row crop prices continue to be supported by supply-side disruptions and elevated input costs.

  • Source: USDA NASS, September 2022. Note: Row crop prices are published on a monthly basis by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.
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Farmland investment returns

  • 2022 Q3 NCREIF quarterly row crop returns highest since Q3 2007

    • Q3 2022 NCREIF row crop returns reached 2.67%, the highest Q3 quarterly return since 2007.
    • Positive market momentum helped boost income returns and provided support for stronger appreciation returns.
    • USDA farm income and wealth statistics project 2022 crop cash receipts to gain 19%, to US$285.5 billion.
    • Although growth in cash receipts is expected to extend across most crops, those of corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to drive the majority of the gains. 

  • Source: NCREIF, March 2022. NCREIF Farmland Property Index is published on a quarterly basis. NCREIF quarterly total row crop returns are aggregated to form the total return for the year. The total return as seen on the bar chart may not equal the total return as reported by NCREIF because the NCREIF annual return is calculated by multiplying instead of adding quarterly returns together.

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