February 22, 2024
Funded status
In Q1 2025, the average funded status slightly declined to 138.0%, down from 138.1% in the previous quarter. Although both assets and liabilities decreased during this period, the reduction in assets was more pronounced due to negative returns in global equities.
Asset mix
The average asset mix represents a combination of growth, hedging, and diversifying assets, each playing a unique role in the functioning of the pension portfolio. The average asset mix implies an interest rate hedge ratio of 55.0%, relative to the interest rate exposure of the average liabilities.1
Outlook
Over the past five years, equity market volatility has varied significantly, whereas bond market volatility has consistently remained high. Looking ahead, we anticipate that ongoing monetary policy uncertainty will continue to sustain elevated bond market volatility, potentially posing a headwind for pension plans with relatively greater unhedged interest rate risk.
Market overview
Fixed income
Canadian bonds advanced in the first quarter. Bonds rallied amid softer economic data, most notably a decline in consumer spending and continued tame inflation figures. In addition, the threat of trade tariffs from the United States led to concerns about supply chain disruptions and the potential adverse effect on Canadian economic growth. In this environment, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut short-term interest rates twice during the quarter, bringing the central bank’s benchmark interest rate down to 2.75%, its lowest level since September 2022.
Canadian bond yields declined across the board during Q1, with short-term yields declining most as they tracked the BoC rate cuts. Although sector performance was uniformly positive, government bonds posted the best returns for the quarter, while high-yield corporate bonds lagged.
Equities
Canadian stocks posted a narrow gain in the first quarter, with a rally in gold miners offsetting weaker returns in other areas. The market was heavily influenced by the Trump administration’s shifting trade policy and worries about the potential economic impact of U.S. tariffs. Investors also remained on edge due to political developments, highlighted by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s resignation and new PM Mark Carney’s announcement of a snap election in April. On the positive side, the BoC announced two quarter-point interest rate cuts that lowered the benchmark policy rate to 2.75%. While the central bank is expected to slow the pace of easing, a continued decline in inflation fueled hopes that two more quarter-point reductions could be in store before year end.
Uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs weighed on broad-based global equity indexes in the first quarter. Most of the downturn was the result of weakness in the United States, where stocks were pressured by concerns that President Trump’s trade policies could cause a resurgence in inflation and weigh on economic growth. Additionally, worries about reduced investment in AI-related infrastructure led to a sell-off in technology stocks; still, there were pockets of meaningful strength in world markets. In a reversal of the trends that characterized 2024, international stocks outpaced the United States, and the value style soundly outperformed growth. European equities performed particularly well thanks to the German government’s announcement of substantial fiscal stimulus, propelling the major regional indexes in mid-March to their highest level since 2009.
Canada yield curve (%)
Source: Bank of Canada, Manulife Investment Management, as of March 31, 2025.

January 2025
Latest asset allocation views
As we head into 2025, U.S. trade policies take center stage amid the economy’s stronger fundamentals compared against peers.
The solvency funded status of an average defined benefit pension plan1
In Q1 2025, the average funded status for Canadian defined benefits (DB) pension plans slightly declined to 138.0%, down from 138.1% in the previous quarter. Although both assets and liabilities decreased during the period, the reduction in assets was more pronounced due to negative returns in global equities, particularly influenced by U.S. stocks. Despite this decline, the current average funded status remained significantly higher than it was in December 2020.
Funded status of the average defined benefit pension plan in Canada
Performance and asset mix of average DB pension plan1
The average asset mix represents a combination of growth, hedging, and diversifying assets, each playing a unique role in the functioning of the pension portfolio. The average asset mix implies an interest rate hedge ratio of 55.0%, relative to the interest rate exposure of the average liabilities.²
Based on Manulife’s capital markets assumptions, the average asset mix implies an expected return of 6.10%. Based on Manulife’s modeling and stress testing, there’s a 95% probability that losses relative to liabilities will be less than 12.79%.
Portfolio statistics
55.03%
interest rate hedge ratio
6.1%
expected return
–12.79%
net risk (95% VaR)
Performance¹ and asset mix of an average defined benefit pension plan in Canada
Asset class |
Benchmark |
Weight |
Role |
Q1 2025 return |
YTD return |
Global equities |
MSCI ACWI Index |
30% |
Growth |
-1.15% |
-1.15% |
Canadian equities |
S&P/TSX Composite Index |
10% |
Growth |
1.51% |
1.51% |
Canadian long-term fixed income |
FTSE LT Canada Corporate Bond Index |
20% |
Hedging |
1.79% |
1.79% |
Canadian core fixed income |
FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index |
20% |
Hedging |
2.02% |
2.02% |
Real estate |
S&P Global Property Index |
10% |
Diversifying |
1..89% |
1.89% |
Infrastructure |
S&P Global Infrastructure Index |
10% |
Diversifying |
4.68% |
4.68% |
Risk analysis of an average defined benefit pension plan
Equity risk represents a large component of risk exposure for DB plans, and a drastic downward move in equity prices has the potential to create a significant impact. A decrease in interest rates also has the potential to negatively affect the surplus of the average DB pension plan, as it would lead to an increase in the present value of liabilities.
Impact of certain market moves on the surplus status of the average Canadian DB pension plan (%)
Scenario |
Surplus/deficit |
Change in surplus |
Base |
37.96% |
— |
Interest rates, 1% decrease |
32.30% |
-5.66% |
Interest rates, 1% increase |
42.23% |
4.26% |
Credit spread, 1% decrease |
36.83% |
-1.13% |
Credit spread, 1% increase |
37.96% |
0.00% |
Equity prices, 20% decrease |
26.90% |
-11.06% |
Risk analysis of the average Canadian DB pension plan
In our model, a fair amount of risk is diversified away, and along with significant equity risk, the average pension plan also has exposure to interest rate, credit, and property risks.
Value at risk
Solvency funded ratio of the average Canadian DB pension plan across various scenarios
Based on our scenario analysis, the median forecast solvency funded ratio for the average Canadian DB plan is 141.5% in March 2026 and 143.5% in March 2036.
Asset and liability assumptions
Asset assumptions
The asset allocation of the Pension barometer is loosely based on the Canadian defined benefit plan asset mix for 2021 provided by Coalition Greenwich in its January 2022 edition of Market Trends & Competitive Positioning, "2021 Canadian Institutional Investor Research."
The funded status Pension barometer assumes the following asset allocation at the start date (December 31, 2020):
- Canadian core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index)
- Canadian long core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Long Term Bond Index)
- Canadian all cap: 10% (MSCI Canada Index)
- Global AC large cap: 30% (MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index)
- Infrastructure: 10% (S&P Global Infrastructure Index)
- Real: 10% (iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index)
The scenario analysis, simulations, and projections (VaR, funded status scenarios, surplus analysis, risk metrics) assume the below asset allocation at the start date (December 21, 2020):
- Canadian core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index)
- Canadian long core fixed income: 20% (FTSE Canada Long Term Bond Index)
- Canadian all cap: 10% (MSCI Canada Index)
- Global AC large cap: 30% (MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index)
- Infrastructure: 10% (S&P Global Infrastructure Index)
- Real estate: 10% (iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index)
Both asset allocation scenarios assume monthly rebalancing.
Liability assumptions
The liability curve data is provided by PFaroe (Moody’s).
- Discount curve: CUSIP V39062 plus a parameter spread based on the liability duration
- Preretirement and postretirement discount curve: Unindexed commuted value
The liability cash flows are produced by Manulife and are modeled off the cash flows from the Manulife IM Mid-Term Liability Provincial Bond Benchmark. The Manulife IM Mid-Term Liability Provincial Bond Benchmark is a notional portfolio of fixed-income securities drawn from constituents of the FTSE Canada Universe Provincial Bond Index and the FTSE Canada Provincial Strip Bond Index, and is constructed to hedge the target cash flow structure of the liabilities. The cash flow structure of the liabilities was established by Manulife IM using a proprietary methodology and representing an average Canadian pension plan that has 25% of liabilities from active members and 75% as retired members, with demographic and labour distribution data sourced from Statistics Canada.
The liabilities measured in the Pension barometer are based on the Canadian federal solvency valuation methodology.
Outlook
As we enter Q2 2025, uncertainty continues to significantly influence market dynamics, driven by rapidly evolving U.S. government policies. Proposed tariffs on global trading partners have been a major focus, contributing to market volatility. Traditionally, government policies aim to provide stability for businesses, consumers, and investors to foster economic growth. However, the current unpredictable environment could lead to higher prices, affecting consumers and companies through increased costs and reduced profit margins. This uncertainty complicates economic forecasting and may hinder decisive actions from central banks as they approach the end of their easing cycles. In the longer term, tariffs could reshape domestic production and alter global supply chains, potentially dampening consumer and business confidence and slowing economic growth while increasing inflation. From an asset allocation perspective, recent signs of decelerating economic growth and policy uncertainty have challenged U.S. market dominance. In this uncertain environment, diversification is crucial across all asset classes, and alternatives provide a key third lever for investors as trade uncertainties present challenges for both equities and fixed income.
Over the past five years, equity market volatility has varied significantly, whereas bond market volatility has consistently remained high. Looking ahead, we anticipate that ongoing monetary policy uncertainty will continue to sustain elevated bond market volatility, potentially posing a headwind for pension plans with relatively greater unhedged interest rate risk.
1 Asset mix assumptions. 2 Liability assumptions.
Authors

Vishal Mansukhani, CFA
Global Multi-Asset Client Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management

Howard Chao, FSA, FCIA, CFA
Head of Investment Strategy, Liability-Driven Investments, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management

Alec Fowler
Investment Analyst, Liability-Driven Investments, Multi-Asset Solutions Team
Manulife Investment Management
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