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Timberland market indicators

We compile a quarterly update that enables investors to access our latest insight into global market movements at a glance.

Q4 2024: timber markets moved toward more balance

Following a year of persistently weak construction demand, low prices for finished manufactured products, and realignment of processing capacity, timber markets began to firm by year end. Persistent weakness in demand and prices for manufactured wood products has weighed on timber markets. In North America, both temporary and permanent manufacturing capacity closures tightened some slack in the supply-and-demand balance. In both New Zealand and Australia, progress toward more affordable domestic housing from policy support is progressing.

The challenging economic environment is tempering residential construction, and repair and remodeling activity as high home prices and borrowing costs negatively bear on builders and consumers across multiple global wood-producing regions. Expectations of a future rebound in timber demand continued to provide fundamental support for timberland values.

U.S new home construction rose in Q4 2024, softwood lumber prices moved upward

U.S. housing starts at 1.38 million units (SAAR) during the quarter were up 4% from last quarter and 7% below a year ago. Softwood lumber prices increased from last quarter and were up 12% from one year ago.

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Australian new home construction approvals rose, while softwood lumber and log prices moved sideways

Dwelling approvals improved by 4% during Q4, to 44,450 units (seasonally adjusted), while softwood lumber and log prices moderated from prior peaks.

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Timber prices appreciated

Softwood timber prices in U.S. domestic markets moved off the previous quarter’s lows, while New Zealand softwood timber stumpage in USD strengthened.

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U.S. timberland cash yields remained at historically low levels, with current timber revenue low, while timberland values held

Lackluster harvest volume demand and historically low timber prices have maintained Q4 cash yields at historically low levels.

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Values of privately vs. publicly traded timberland in the U.S. South widened¹

U.S timberland values in the South fell for publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) ownership and rose for private institutional ownership, broadening the gap in values.

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Housing construction
Timber prices
Cash yield
Timberland value

Housing construction

U.S. housing starts and softwood lumber prices turned positive

A chart compares quarterly U.S. housing starts with softwood lumber prices since 2007.

Source: Macrobond, September 30, 2024.

U.S. housing starts averaged 1.38 million units (SAAR) during the fourth quarter, up 4% from last quarter and 7% below a year ago.
Total housing starts rose after falling for the fourth consecutive quarter, with single family starts registering a quarterly average of 1.02 million units (SAAR) in Q4, once again moving above the 1 million unit level.
Multifamily housing starts continued to trend lower, averaging 372,000 (SAAR) during the quarter, well off the recent peak of over 600,000 units (SAAR) reached in mid-2022.
The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Index maintained an average of $432/thousand board feet for the quarter, up 12% from both the Q3 average and average prices one year ago. Both softwood and hardwood lumber prices in North America have fallen to breakeven or below levels for some higher-cost producers, forcing temporary mill curtailments in some regions, with multiple mills announcing permanent closures. By year-end 2024, over 3 billion board feet of North American lumber capacity had indefinitely or permanently closed.²

Australia housing approvals moved higher, while lumber prices continued to adjust lower

A chart compares Australian single family and multifamily housing approvals with the lumber and stumpage index price since 2007.

Source: Lumber index: The weighted average price of two untreated MGP 10 structural timber products, one with dimensions 70x35x4.8 (40%) and another with dimensions 90x35x4.8 (60%), rebased to Q1 2000 (Q1 2000 weighted average price = 100). Stumpage index: The average price of Australian Pine Intermediate Sawlog (50%) and Medium Sawlog (50%), rebased to Q1 2000 (Q1 2000 weighted average price =100).

Australia’s dwelling approvals increased 4% from the prior quarter, with single family approvals falling by 6%, and multifamily approvals increasing by 24%.
Australia’s private domestic demand has begun to recover as real household incomes picked up and inflation moderated, but not fast enough for substantial cuts to the policy rate. The Monetary Policy Board applied a 25 basis point cut to the policy rate in February this year, after holding rates at 4.35% throughout 2024, but decided to hold rates when the board met on April 1, 2025.³
Softwood structural lumber prices decreased 2% from the prior quarter, a continuation of the slow downward correction from the peak reached in June 2022.
Softwood stumpage prices, available on a semiannual basis, decreased by 2% in the first half of 2024 compared to the latter half of 2023.

Timber prices

Softwood stumpage prices strengthened

A line chart shows the regional softwood sawtimber stumpage prices for New Zealand export, U.S. Pacific Northwest domestic, and the U.S. South since 2007.

Source: Fastmarkets RISI, TimberMart-South, Forest Economic Advisors, November 2024.

U.S. Pacific Northwest stumpage prices moved higher during the fourth quarter, up 4% on average across the region, returning to price levels seen one year ago. Stronger prices for finished wood products have strengthened mill demand, while multiple mill closures over the past year—some temporary and others permanent—have helped align lumber production output with overall lackluster demand in residential building.
Softwood stumpage prices were flat to slightly higher on average in the U.S. South as wet weather buoyed log prices temporarily on accessible harvest tracts, while post-hurricane salvage log operations weighed on subregional prices.
New Zealand’s USD stumpage prices increased by an average 35% during Q4 after experiencing a 29% increase during Q3. The large swings in USD stumpage are being driven by currency conversion and volatility in logging and hauling costs. New Zealand—China’s largest softwood log supplier—is navigating the strong downward shift in China’s demand for lumber and log imports, which is holding USD New Zealand export log prices at China ports to historically low levels.

Cash yield

Timberland cash yields remained at historically low levels

Source: NCREIF, as of October 2024.

Q4 U.S. timberland cash yields were flat to slightly lower than in Q3 2024, at a value-weighted 1.09% across the United States.
Over the past five years, Q4 cash yields have averaged 2.28%.
Q4’s operating revenue was driven lower by reduced harvest volumes across the United States, with the U.S. West experiencing greater declines than the U.S. South, while stumpage prices in both regions improved. While timberland values ticked higher, lower operating revenue resulted in cash yields moving to historically low levels.

Timberland value

A widening value gap between privately and publicly traded timberland values

Source: NCREIF and MIMTA research, as of November 2024

Publicly traded REIT timberland values in the U.S. South fell by 14% during Q4, pulling away from private timberland values.
U.S. South private timberland (as reported by NCREIF) increased 1% on average in Q4, a 5% increase over average Q4 values last year.

1 Publicly listed ownerships (as measured by MIMTA’s timber enterprise value per Southern equivalent acre (TEA/SEA)). 2 Fastmarkets RISI, as of November 2024. 3 Reserve Bank of Australia as of April 1, 2025.

Related viewpoints

April 4, 2023

Strong income and appreciation gains for U.S. timberland in 2022

Mary Ellen Aronow, Director of Forest Economics, Timberland Manulife Investment Management

U.S. private timberland property investments returned 12.9% during calendar year 2022, with annual gains in both income and capital appreciation.

December 20, 2022

Exploring timberland investment opportunities in Brazil

David A. Fortin, Head of Economic Research Manulife Investment Management

Jaspreet Aulakh, Senior Natural Resource Economist, Timberland and Agriculture Manulife Investment Management

Brazil is attracting greater interest from sustainable timberland investors around the globe, as it’s home to some of the most favorable conditions for eucalyptus, a fast-growing hardwood species used in the production of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp, the most used market pulp in the world.

October 24, 2022

Carbon credit use is reshaping timberland investments

Thomas G. Sarno, Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Timberland Investments, Chief Investment Officer for Timberland Investments Manulife Investment Management

Eric Cooperström, Managing Director, Impact Investing and Natural Climate Solutions Manulife Investment Management

Mary Ellen Aronow, Director of Forest Economics, Timberland Manulife Investment Management

Carbon markets are entering a period of accelerated evolution, requiring the incorporation of carbon values.

March 6, 2024

Expanding the efficient frontier with natural capital investments

David A. Fortin, Head of Economic Research Manulife Investment Management

Weiyi Zhang, Ph.D., Director, Agricultural Economics and Strategy Manulife Investment Management

The combination of investment characteristics associated with institutional investment in timberland and agriculture offers a compelling rationale for their inclusion in larger multi-asset portfolios, and ultimately allows for the expansion of the efficient frontier, as determined by traditional mean-variance portfolio optimization.

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Timberland market indicators

Q4 2024: timber markets moved toward more balance

U.S new home construction rose in Q4 2024, softwood lumber prices moved upward

Australian new home construction approvals rose, while softwood lumber and log prices moved sideways

Timber prices appreciated

U.S. timberland cash yields remained at historically low levels, with current timber revenue low, while timberland values held

Values of privately vs. publicly traded timberland in the U.S. South widened¹

Housing construction

U.S. housing starts and softwood lumber prices turned positive

Australia housing approvals moved higher, while lumber prices continued to adjust lower

Timber prices

Softwood stumpage prices strengthened

Cash yield

Timberland cash yields remained at historically low levels

Timberland value

A widening value gap between privately and publicly traded timberland values

Confirmed.
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