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Timberland market indicators

We compile a quarterly update that enables investors to access our latest insight into global market movements at a glance.

Q3 2024 review: timber markets reflect reduced mill consumption and weak forest product prices

Persistently weak demand and prices for manufactured wood products have continued to weigh on timber markets. The challenging economic environment tempered residential construction and repair and remodeling activity as high home prices and borrowing costs negatively affect builders and consumers across multiple global wood-producing regions. North American lumber production declined amid a flurry of announced mill closures as lumber prices were stuck below production costs for some high-cost producers. Expectations for a future rebound in timber demand continued to provide support for timberland values.

U.S new home construction fell in Q3 2024, reducing lumber consumption and prices

U.S. housing starts at 1.33 million units (SAAR) during the quarter were down 1% from last quarter and 4% below a year ago. Softwood lumber prices remained unchanged from last quarter and were down 4% from one year ago.

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Australian new home construction approvals improved modestly in Q3 2024, while softwood lumber and log prices moved sideways

Dwelling approvals improved 7% during Q3, to 42,840 units (seasonally adjusted), as softwood lumber and log prices held near prior levels.

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Prices for timber reflected weakness in residential construction demand

Softwood timber prices in U.S. domestic markets slid lower, while New Zealand USD softwood log export prices moved off last quarter’s historically low levels.

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U.S. timberland cash yields reached historically low levels as timber prices and harvest volumes fell, while timberland values held

Reduced demand from forest product producers weighed on timberland harvest volumes and log prices, while timberland values held, resulting in third-quarter cash yields dropping to historically low levels.

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Values of private and publicly traded timberland in the U.S. South strengthened¹

U.S. timberland values in the South rose for both publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) ownership and private, institutional ownership, narrowing the gap in values that prevailed last quarter.

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Housing construction
Timber prices
Cash yield
Timberland value

Housing construction

U.S. housing starts moved lower and softwood lumber prices remained at unsustainably low levels

A chart compares quarterly U.S. housing starts with softwood lumber prices since 2007.

Source: Macrobond, September 30, 2024. LHS is left-hand side, RHS is right-hand side.

U.S. housing starts averaged 1.33 million units (SAAR) during the third quarter, down 1% from last quarter and 4% below a year ago.
Total housing starts fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, single-family starts registered a quarterly average of 0.96 million units (SAAR) in the third quarter, moving below the 1 million unit level, which has held for the past three quarters.
Multifamily housing starts continued to trend lower, averaging 363,000 (SAAR) during the quarter, well off the recent peak of over 600,000 units (SAAR) reached in mid-2022.
The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Index maintained an average of $384/MBF for the quarter, the same level as the second-quarter average. Both softwood and hardwood lumber prices in North America fell to break-even or below levels for some higher-cost producers, forcing temporary mill curtailments in some regions, along with multiple mills announcing permanent closures. To date in 2024, over 3 billion board feet of North American lumber capacity has indefinitely or permanently closed.²

Australia housing approvals moved modestly higher, while lumber and log prices held

A chart compares Australian single family and multifamily housing approvals with the lumber and stumpage index price since 2007.

Source: Lumber index: The weighted average price of two untreated MGP 10 structural timber products, one with dimensions 70x35x4.8 (40%) and another with dimensions 90x35x4.8 (60%), rebased to Q1 2000 (Q1 2000 weighted average price = 100). Stumpage index: The average price of Australian Pine Intermediate Sawlog (50%) and Medium Sawlog (50%), rebased to Q1 2000 (Q1 2000 weighted average price =100).

Australia dwelling approvals increased 7% from the prior quarter, with single-family approvals rising 5%, and multifamily approvals increasing 10%.
Despite increased population growth boosting the need for housing, high home prices, mortgage rates, and continued elevated inflation are affecting affordability and slowed new home demand.
Softwood structural lumber prices moved little in the third quarter—remaining near historic highs.
Softwood stumpage prices, available on a semiannual basis, decreased 2% in the first half of 2024 compared against the latter half of 2023, reflective of tight pine log supply.

Timber prices

U.S. softwood timber prices fell on reduced demand, New Zealand export log prices moved off a recent low

A line chart shows the regional softwood sawtimber stumpage prices for New Zealand export, U.S. Pacific Northwest domestic, and the U.S. South since 2007.

Source: Fastmarkets RISI, TimberMart-South, Forest Economic Advisors, November 2024.

U.S. Pacific Northwest stumpage prices moved lower again during Q3, down 8% on average across the region. Many mills slowed production in an effort to align consumption with lower finished forest product demand and prices. Multiple mill closures were announced during the quarter—some temporary and others permanent. Announced milling capacity in Oregon is estimated to have been reduced by over 550 MMBF in 2024.²
Softwood stumpage prices were flat to slightly lower on average in the U.S. South, as wet weather buoyed log prices temporarily on accessible harvest tracts, while salvage log operations post-hurricanes weighed on prices. Near-term improvement in overall log demand remained elusive due to ongoing softness in residential construction and repair and remodeling expenditures in the United States. With southern pine lumber prices sitting at or below production costs, mill curtailments and closures in the U.S. South are estimated near 1,150 MMBF in 2024.²
New Zealand USD stumpage prices increased 29% on average during Q3 after experiencing a 45% decrease in Q2. New Zealand— China’s largest softwood log supplier—is navigating the strong downward shift in China’s demand for lumber and log imports.

Cash yield

Timberland cash yields moved to historically low levels

Source: NCREIF, as of October 2024.

Third-quarter U.S. timberland cash yields declined by 31 basis points from Q2 2024, to a value-weighted 1.1% across the United States.
Over the past five years, Q3 cash yields have averaged 2.3%.
Operating revenue was driven lower in the United States during Q3 by reduced harvest volumes across the country, with the U.S. West experiencing greater declines than the U.S. South, while stumpage prices in both regions were lackluster during the quarter. Lower operating revenue while timberland values ticked higher resulted in cash yields moving to historically low levels.

Timberland value

Southern U.S. timberland values strengthened

Source: NCREIF and MIMTA research, as of November 2024

Publicly traded REIT timberland values in the U.S. South rose 18% during Q3, moving near private timberland values.
U.S. South private timberland (as reported by NCREIF) increased 1% on average in the third quarter, a 7.6% increase over average Q3 values last year.

1 Publicly listed ownerships (as measured by MIMTA’s timber enterprise value per Southern equivalent acre (TEA/SEA)). 2 Fastmarkets RISI as of November 2024.

Related viewpoints

April 4, 2023

Strong income and appreciation gains for U.S. timberland in 2022

Mary Ellen Aronow, Director of Forest Economics, Timberland Manulife Investment Management

U.S. private timberland property investments returned 12.9% during calendar year 2022, with annual gains in both income and capital appreciation.

December 20, 2022

Exploring timberland investment opportunities in Brazil

David A. Fortin, Senior Director, Economic Research, Timberland and Agriculture Manulife Investment Management

Jaspreet Aulakh, Senior Natural Resource Economist, Timberland and Agriculture Manulife Investment Management

Brazil is attracting greater interest from sustainable timberland investors around the globe, as it’s home to some of the most favorable conditions for eucalyptus, a fast-growing hardwood species used in the production of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp, the most used market pulp in the world.

October 24, 2022

Carbon credit use is reshaping timberland investments

Thomas G. Sarno, Global Head of Timberland Investments Manulife Investment Management

Eric Cooperström, Managing Director, Impact Investing and Natural Climate Solutions Manulife Investment Management

Mary Ellen Aronow, Director of Forest Economics, Timberland Manulife Investment Management

Carbon markets are entering a period of accelerated evolution, requiring the incorporation of carbon values.

March 6, 2024

Expanding the efficient frontier with natural capital investments

David A. Fortin, Senior Director, Economic Research, Timberland and Agriculture Manulife Investment Management

Weiyi Zhang, Ph.D., Associate Director, Agricultural Economics Manulife Investment Management

The combination of investment characteristics associated with institutional investment in timberland and agriculture offers a compelling rationale for their inclusion in larger multi-asset portfolios, and ultimately allows for the expansion of the efficient frontier, as determined by traditional mean-variance portfolio optimization.

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Timberland market indicators

Q3 2024 review: timber markets reflect reduced mill consumption and weak forest product prices

U.S new home construction fell in Q3 2024, reducing lumber consumption and prices

Australian new home construction approvals improved modestly in Q3 2024, while softwood lumber and log prices moved sideways

Prices for timber reflected weakness in residential construction demand

U.S. timberland cash yields reached historically low levels as timber prices and harvest volumes fell, while timberland values held

Values of private and publicly traded timberland in the U.S. South strengthened1

Housing construction

U.S. housing starts moved lower and softwood lumber prices remained at unsustainably low levels

Australia housing approvals moved modestly higher, while lumber and log prices held

Timber prices

U.S. softwood timber prices fell on reduced demand, New Zealand export log prices moved off a recent low

Cash yield

Timberland cash yields moved to historically low levels

Timberland value

Southern U.S. timberland values strengthened

Confirmed.
Welcome back.

Values of private and publicly traded timberland in the U.S. South strengthened¹