Viewpoints about Economy
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U.S. dollar outlook—moving from strength to weakness
The strength that the U.S. dollar displayed in Q1 caught many investors off guard; however, data suggests the currency could resume its long-term downward trend soon.
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How to navigate the coming great (economic) data distortion
The coming months will provide some of the most increasingly complicated economic data in recent memory. Here we provide broad rules for interpreting the data.
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One year into the equity bull market!
What a year it has been! Some feel the reflation trade in the equity markets may be over, but we believe long-term bonds and equity markets could move higher.
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The role of recency bias on market acceptance of higher inflation and yields
What’s more important: where we’ve come from or where we’re going? Has recency bias affected perception of inflation rates and U.S. Treasury yields? Let’s see …
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Ten questions on Modern Monetary Theory
Modern Monetary Theory is not new but is in the limelight as government spending rises amid the pandemic
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Global markets at a key inflection point: six working assumptions
As we enter the second phase of the recovery, growth momentum is likely to stall. We identify key themes that could shape global markets in the coming months.
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The three stages of the global economic recovery
A recession unlike any other is followed by an economic recovery that’s just as unconventional—one that kicks off with a bang, only to moderate over time.
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Global Macro Outlook—an uneven recovery begins
The worst of the economic impact arising from the pandemic seems to be over. Our macroeconomic strategy team examines the issues that could shape the recovery.
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U.S. economic outlook: macroeconomic headwinds vs. tailwinds
The United States is gradually reopening for business, but our Global Chief Economist Frances Donald believes the U.S. economy isn’t out of the woods just yet.
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What’s next for the global economy? Eight working assumptions
The scale of the economic fallout triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 may be clearer with each passing day, but it remains nearly impossible to quantify the extent of the damage mathematically. Our macroeconomic strategy team identifies eight themes that they believe will shape the global economy in the coming months.
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