June 14, 2023
Recession postponed, not canceled
Despite the aggressive monetary policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies has shown to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
Inflation remains stickier than expected
While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
Unexpectedly hawkish central banks
From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
A shifting geopolitical backdrop
There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop.
U.S. recession appears likely despite unexpected strength
Data year to date suggests that the U.S. economy had a better start to the year than expected. But we see this as a case of recession postponed rather than canceled.Download our Q3 Global Macro Outlook
Three factors underpinning economic activity in the United States
“In our view, these tailwinds should dissipate as the lagged effects of monetary tightening filter through and the savings buffer that consumers have accumulated is run down.”
—Sue Trinh, Co-Head, Global Macro Strategy, Manulife Investment Management
Previous editions of Global Macro Outlook
The global macro strategy team provides global economic forecasts and research for the firm and sits within the multi-asset solutions team (MAST). The team’s analysis helps inform MAST’s positioning decisions as well as the investment views of other investment teams within Manulife Investment Management.
Find out more about Frances and her views
Global Chief Economist and Strategist
Find out more about Sue and her views
Co-Head, Global Macro Strategy
Find out more about Alex and his views
Co-Head, Global Macro Strategy
Find out more about Dominique and his views
Global Macro Strategist
Find out more about Erica and her views
Senior Global Macro Analyst
June 7, 2023
May 31, 2023
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