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Asset allocation outlook: proceed with caution

There were a number of key economic and market themes in flux in 2023, most notably a global economic environment that held up stronger than most market participants predicted. As 2024 gets under way, we look at some of the themes driving our asset allocation outlook.

Softer growth, but broader equity participation

A confluence of factors helped drive large-cap equity growth in 2023 beyond what most people anticipated. The information technology and communication services sectors—which account for almost all technology and artificial intelligence (AI)—contributed more than 70.0% of the S&P 500 Index’s 26.3% total return for the year. 

S&P 500 Index level

1/3/23–12/29/23

This line chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index between January 2023 and February 2024. The total return for the S&P 500 Index was 26.3%, which took many investors by surprise. The index breached the 5,000 level for the first time in its history in early February.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, February 2024. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Yet even as broad equity markets push ahead with the S&P 500 Index breaching the 5,000 level for the first time in early February, we remain cautious about economic growth overall, particularly in the United States, where we anticipate lower growth than the 2.5% gross domestic product growth experienced in 2023. We also believe that most major global central banks have now reached peak rates for this economic cycle after seeing inflation moderate fairly consistently throughout 2023 and, should this trajectory continue, we anticipate central banks globally beginning to cut rates at some point in 2024.

From a market perspective, while 2023’s returns were driven by a narrow basket of U.S. large-cap technology stocks, 2024 should present an environment with broader market participation, particularly on the equity side. While we feel that technology and AI will continue to be strong contributors to equity returns, we also feel that opportunities will broaden out to areas of the market that have been laggards. This includes areas such as small-cap stocks, which tend to perform better during falling rate environments, healthcare, along with certain equity factors, including high dividend or quality stocks. We also continue to have a favorable outlook on the Japanese equity market, which had an outstanding year, reaching 33-year highs with returns of around 22% in U.S. dollars in 2023.

Broad equity outlook

As of January 31, 2024, Manulife Investment Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Team has an overweight stance in U.S. equities and U.S. small cap. It has an underweight stance in Canadian equities. The team has a neutral view of European and emerging-market equities, and non-U.S. developed-market equities.
Source: Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management, as of January 31, 2024. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end of this page.

A focus on duration

On the fixed-income front, we expect interest rates to come down across the entire yield curve and we're positioning portfolios for more duration rather than increasing credit exposures. Meanwhile, private credit is a sizable and growing asset class that’s increasingly garnering attention from private investors. We highlight this and expand on our views in our latest asset allocation outlook.
 

Diversification remains key

As long-term multi-asset investors, we believe robust portfolios are built on diversification on three levels: asset class diversification across sectors, subsectors, and geographic regions; manager diversification to blend specialist skills in key markets; and diversifying investment styles, using active management where it may add value and low-cost passive implementation for broad market exposure. In our view, this combined strategic approach helps investors realize the potential benefits of multi-asset investing.

Knowing what to expect from asset classes is essential in building robust portfolios. Read the latest asset allocation views from the Multi-Asset Solutions Team.

Model inputs are factors in Manulife Investment Management research and are not meant as predictions for any particular asset class, mutual fund, or investment vehicle. To initiate the investment process, the multi-asset solutions team formulates five-year, forward-looking risk and return expectations, developed through a variety of quantitative modeling techniques and complemented with qualitative and fundamental insight; assumptions are then adjusted for economic cycles and growth trend rates. The charts shown here may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and are only as current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different from that shown here.

The information in this material, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.

This material should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or to adopt any investment strategy.

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Clients and prospects should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife Investment Management, nor any of our affiliates or representatives (collectively Manulife Investment Management) is providing tax, investment, or legal advice.

This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Manulife Investment Management shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Nathan W. Thooft, CFA

Nathan W. Thooft, CFA, 

Chief Investment Officer, Senior Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management

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