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Three themes shaping asset allocation in H2 2023

From a regional bank crisis to default fears, the first five months of 2023 has been anything but quiet. As we head into the second half of the year, we take a look at key themes that could affect risk markets and investment returns.

A very busy six months

The first half of 2023 may have felt challenging, but it’s fair to say that the global economy and financial markets have shown to be more resilient than expected. Generally speaking, stocks and the fixed-income market have delivered positive returns year to date.1

While breadth of the positive performance in the stock market isn’t as broad as we would have liked—for instance, small caps and parts of the emerging-market universe didn’t do too well—technology stocks managed to carve out some respectable gains after a horrible 2022.

On the fixed-income side of the equation, we’ve seen positive returns in government-backed and credit securities. Those returns may seem modest, but they do represent a sharp improvement from what we saw in 2022.

Looking ahead, we find ourselves focusing on three key themes from an asset allocation perspective.

1 Dial down the focus on inflation, worry more about growth

The battle against inflation isn’t over, but it’s time to cast our gaze further afield and focus on growth—specifically, the effect that sticky inflation and cumulative rate hikes can have on growth. The lagged effects of central bank monetary tightening are finally becoming more observable, and it’s becoming clear that they’re starting to bite into growth dynamics. While the economy has been fairly resilient, we think it isn’t enough to avert a recession in parts of the world.

That said, it must be noted that we’re less worried about how deep the expected recession could be than we are about how long it will last. It’s possible that we could be stuck in a slow-growth environment for a prolonged period—a scenario that isn’t reflected in current pricing of market securities.

Asset class overview
As of June 2023, from a broad asset-class overview perspective, Manulife Investment Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Team has a neutral view of both fixed-income and equities.
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of June 22, 2023. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end of this page.
Broad equity
As of June 2023, from a broad asset-class overview perspective, Manulife Investment Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Team has a neutral view of both fixed-income and equities.
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of June 22, 2023. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end of this page.
Regional/sector-specific equity
Taking a regional and sector-specific view, Manulife Investment Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Team has an overweight view of equities in Japan, emerging Latin America, and infrastructure as of June 2023. The team is underweight on real estate investment trusts and has a neutral view on equities in the United Kingdom, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Asia-Pacific excluding Asia and the commodities space.
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of June 22, 2023. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end of this page.
Fixed income
Within fixed income, Manulife Investment Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Team has is overweight Asia investment grade, Asia high yield, and emerging-market debt as of June 2023. The team is neutral on U.S. investment grade, Canadian investment-grade and global investment-grade. It is underweight U.S. high yield and leveraged loans.
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of June 22, 2023. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end of this page.

2 Certainty about rising uncertainty

Investors should get used to heightened uncertainty because it’s unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon. In addition to ongoing uncertainty around central bank policy, markets will also need to constantly adjust to the ever-evolving global geopolitical backdrop. Crucially, markets seem to have a fairly rosy view of corporate earnings, which seems somewhat optimistic—in our view—relative to what fundamentals suggest. In such an environment, we believe it makes sense to focus on higher-quality assets and adopt a more defensive positioning.

3 An improvement in long-term return prospects

Our analysis indicates that the longer-term return prospects for equities and fixed-income assets look healthy once we’ve returned to a growth environment, which is particularly true for fixed-income assets.

On the back of the sizable reset in interest rates across the globe, the return prospects for fixed-income instruments now look much better over a 5- to 10-year forecast horizon relative to where they were just two years ago. As active managers, we’ve been able to identify interesting opportunities within the fixed-income complex.

Broadly speaking, stock valuations have fallen from their recent peak; however, the repricing that equities went through wasn’t as severe as their fixed-income peers. Relatively speaking, while there are opportunities to be found within the equities space, we find fixed income more attractive at this juncture. Investors can expect fixed-income instruments to continue to provide a return in a low-growth environment; the same can’t be said of equities, as a protracted period of anemic growth typically translates into headwinds for this asset class.

“Crucially, markets seem to have a fairly rosy view of corporate earnings, which seems somewhat optimistic—in our view—relative to what fundamentals suggest.”

Looking beyond short-term challenges

In a time in which instant gratification has become the default setting, it can be difficult to battle short-termism; investing, however, requires us all to discard the instinct to assess everything through the prism of now—it’s a longer-term commitment. Things should improve once we get past the imminent low-growth environment and likely recession. For the next 6 to 12 months, adopting a more defensive posture with a keen focus on quality could make the most sense, particularly within the context of rising uncertainty.

As of 6/13/2023.

Model inputs are factors in Manulife Investment Management research and are not meant as predictions for any particular asset class, mutual fund, or investment vehicle. To initiate the investment process, the multi-asset solutions team formulates five-year, forward-looking risk and return expectations, developed through a variety of quantitative modeling techniques and complemented with qualitative and fundamental insight; assumptions are then adjusted for economic cycles and growth trend rates. The charts shown here may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and are only as current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different from that shown here.

The information in this material, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.

This material should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or to adopt any investment strategy. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Clients and prospects should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife Investment Management, nor any of our affiliates or representatives (collectively Manulife Investment Management) are providing tax, investment, or legal advice.

This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

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Nathan W. Thooft, CFA

Nathan W. Thooft, CFA, 

Chief Investment Officer, Senior Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management

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James Robertson, CIM

James Robertson, CIM, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Asset Allocation–Canada, and Global Head of Tactical Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management

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Luke Browne

Luke Browne, 

Head of Asset Allocation, Asia

Manulife Investment Management

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Geoffrey Kelley, CFA

Geoffrey Kelley, CFA, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Global Head of Strategic Asset Allocation and Systematic Equity, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

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Frances Donald

Frances Donald, 

Former Global Chief Economist and Strategist

Manulife Investment Management

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Eric Menzer, CFA, CAIA, AIF

Eric Menzer, CFA, CAIA, AIF , 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Global Head of OCIO and Fiduciary Solutions, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

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Benjamin W. Forssell, CFA

Benjamin W. Forssell, CFA, 

Client Portfolio Manager, Global Multi-Asset Team

Manulife Investment Management

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Robert E. Sykes, CFA

Robert E. Sykes, CFA, 

Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Asset Allocation, U.S., Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

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