Episode 112 | Curveballs, candies, and shutdowns—navigating an eventful October

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Macan Nia   0:03
Welcome back to Investments Unplugged. My name is Macan Nia, Co-chief Investment Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, and I'm joined here as always with my co-host and partner in crime, Kevin Headland.

Kevin Headland   0:17
How's it going Macan?

Macan Nia   0:19
Doing well. We're recording this on October 17th, 2025. The Jays have come back and tied the Mariners. Game 5 is tonight, so typically takes us two weeks to turn around these podcasts. So hopefully when you hear this, they have won the series and are in the world.
Series Tide will tell.

Kevin Headland   0:40
Oh, so we're we're both wearing our Jays hats, so let's go Jays.

Macan Nia   0:43
Yeah, a lot of a lot of positive vibes and energy in Toronto and across the country for The Jays, who have been remarkable to watch and hopefully they continue the momentum for this episode of episode of Investments Unplugged. What we thought we would do is, you know.
Address three to four questions that we are getting on the road talking with investors and what we thought we would start off with is the one that's front and center is the US government shutdown and its potential impacts as we as we navigate this environment.
#2 Kev Gold. It has done remarkably well. We will talk to wild. We'll talk to why it has done well, and more importantly, what we think is likely to unfold for the gold story as we navigate.

Kevin Headland   1:27
Wild.

Macan Nia   1:37
2026 and then last but not least is interest rates and specifically.
In an environment where the Fed is cutting, what implications will that have on the long end? I think there's a narrative that historically when the Fed cuts interest rates to X, that may not be the case this time, and there may be.
Implications as bond investors in terms of following the old playbook in previous iterations. And then last but not least, I said three. We'll have three main topics and we'll have a fun one. You know, Halloween's around the corner. It's I think the second most favorite holiday of the season after Christmas. I look for.
To it. I know you do, Kevin. We're gonna have some fun with, you know, stats and data points with it. So should we get started, Kev?

Kevin Headland   2:33
Yeah, let's talk about government shutdown. Question we get all the time is or we were talking about us is like what's the difference between this government shutdown and shutdowns regarding the debt ceiling and and these are two things, you know, two different things and essentially it's, you know, I.
Put into to copilot, just give a kind of a summary. It kind of makes sense to to see what the difference is because just it makes it that much easier than than having to do Google research and whatnot. And it came up with a great analogy. Copilot came up with this great analogy that says.
Think about the debt ceiling as how much you're borrowing and this government shutdown right now is based on the appropriations bill. So what are we spending that money on? And both sides you can get a government shutdown. And this one is about not the debt ceiling. This is about the appropriations bill and how much or what?
We're going to spend the money on next year for 2026. And that's the big disagreement, shall we say, between the Republicans and the Democrats right now. And This is why we're on the shutdown.

Macan Nia   3:37
Yeah, so they went on strike on October, on October 1st and on strike or shut down furloughed.

Kevin Headland   3:41
On a strike, they're furloughed. They were, you know, some government jobs are lost. It's like.

Macan Nia   3:49
Yeah. And like you said, it's essentially when Congress fails to approve funding, right, for federal agencies before the 80s, um, same dynamic, but agencies basically they continue to operate.
With the assumption, as most people would assume, Congress would quickly act and get their funding. Then in I think it was the early 1980 or 1981, the attorney general at that time said that government agencies had to basically didn't have the authority to continue running during a gap.
In funding and now since then we have this political showsmanship. Now what's impacted and what's not because we'll talk to the market impact in a bit. But from a you know functional perspective, what is not impacted and these are important. What's not impacted is Treasury interest.

Kevin Headland   4:44
Yeah.

Macan Nia   4:45
Payments in port. Those cannot stop. They continue. So met. Sorry.

Kevin Headland   4:48
Right.
Well, sorry, the other thing with that is sort of the and that's where the nuance comes because that is more involved with the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling issue is when or the treasuries and perhaps the risk of default and downgrading to finance the actual.
Entire government. So that's where we're a bit worded, but that's healing versus now appropriations bill.

Macan Nia   5:09
Yeah. And on top of what won't be affected, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, law enforcement, smaller aid programs, what will be impacted is, you know, things for the like FDA for example, food and safety inspections, things at the SEC.
FEMA, which might be a big one in the event that we do actually get a national disaster, but I would be very quick to think that they would approve funding for that. Data collection is a big one, Kev, which we've been talking about that is going to be affected. We are essentially right now flying blind as investors and economists.

Kevin Headland   5:31
E-mail it.
You can say.
Yeah.

Macan Nia   5:49
And strategist, we're not getting the totality of the information that we typically would receive. And then this one, if it continues, I think this one could have an impact is like Small Business Administration would not be issuing new loans that may have an impact in the future, but net net as is.
Major programs continue and the ones that may impact economic growth, uh, as of right now are less likely to be impacted. And as a result, you've seen markets have kind of, you know, gave it as the kids say, whatevs, they've gone on furlough.
Is business as usual because frankly, at this stage, historically does have a big impact.

Kevin Headland   6:32
It's interesting because you start to think about all the different jobs, shall we say, that perhaps the government is involved with things like air traffic controllers. So there's, you know, skeleton staff and.
There's certain industries, certain areas that they're being asked to work despite not getting paid. You know, the the pay comes afterwards, for example, for parts of the military. Well, you got to work, but don't worry, we'll pay you later. I I it's it's amazing to do that, but that's part of it. That's what happens. And there hasn't been.
Very many long shutdowns. I think the longest one was somebody 21 days back in 2018. That was the most recent longest shutdown under President Trump's 1.0 first administration. Was it 21?

Macan Nia   7:15
How many did you say, Kev?

Kevin Headland   7:19
I need twenty-one. OK, twenty-one was the other one, maybe the previous one, but but yeah, a month. So it's it's for some people that's a month with no pay. You know, perhaps being furloughed and furloughed meaning you're you're gonna stop working for X amount time till we.

Macan Nia   7:20
3434 days I have it in front of me.
But insignificant couple weeks.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's fair.

Kevin Headland   7:39
Can call you back to work and you're sitting there waiting and there's even potential to actually have job losses to to to cut expenses in this current administration that says, you know, we're going to take advantage of this and then actually reduce some of the government workers.

Macan Nia   7:55
It was interesting. I was listening to something yesterday and they were talking about the factor that might drive a resolution and it actually might be the staffers of the con or the congressional members because they're not being paid and their monthly rent is coming due in Washington.
So and if it continues, who's paying that? And they're gonna be putting, they were saying that they might be putting pressure from, you know, other levels to the congressional congressman or woman in terms of getting it done cause they're gonna pay my rent. But you know, historically quickly, like you said Kev, since the 80s there's been 20 government shutdowns.

Kevin Headland   8:14
Yeah.

Macan Nia   8:31
The market basically historically during those periods is flat. Average return six months later is 3%. And then from an economic perspective, when you look at previous periods of U.S. economic growth measured by GDP during government shutdowns.
It has had zero impact and the periods where you did get negative economic growth was during recessions. And those recessions, whether it was in 1990821980, they weren't a result of the government shutdown. They're a result of other external factors, so.
Something to talk about, but this is one of those things, Kev.
It's every year we get it in our careers and it's a Washington tradition. And why it will get resolved is no one really benefits from a a lengthy government shutdown. So we view this issue issue as kind of disruptive, but very unlikely to be destructive.

Kevin Headland   9:19
OK.
And as you mentioned as well, we're kind of flying blind. You know, the labor market data hasn't come out, the unemployment data hasn't come out. But we actually have other means to find some of the trends in the economic data. You know, we look at purchasing managers indices, they have labor data in there as well. So it it forces strategy.
Economists, any of the market to perhaps look at other avenues to see some of the potential risks or the trends in some of that kind of data. But eventually as you said, it'll get resolved. We're waiting here, we'll get the data and I don't think it's really impacted anything. And as you said, the market just kind of, yeah, meh, we're.
More important things to look at, for example, earnings growth right now, which is we're just starting earnings season and the market's more focused on that than any risks of the government shutdown impacting volatility.

Macan Nia   10:26
Yeah, focus on that. Focus on President Trump and President Xi's meeting at the end of this month. Focus on the Fed meeting minutes and, you know, the trajectory of their cuts. So, yeah, much bigger things to, you know, worry about as investors. So, you know, let's talk about worry.
As investors and I think that leads nicely into our second topic, gold baby, it's gold and gold has been on a rip Kev as you know and just to highlight its price movement. So from basically 19 or 19202020 to.

Kevin Headland   10:52
It's unreal.
Ha.

Macan Nia   11:01
2023 it was range-bound between 1500 and 2000. And then the early parts of 2024 coinciding when, you know, with Donald Trump improvement in the polls, increase in the likelihood of him winning. You've seen gold rally from early 2000.
2024 from 2000. By the end of last year it hit roughly 2500. So you got that 25% increase and then since then it's just skyrocketed this year. It's at 4275 as of.
Time of recording. It has been on fire and it's, you know, it's surged due to a couple of reasons, like I've traded uncertainty geopolitical risk and you know the traditional appeal of gold is a weaker U.S. dollar as we've seen lower US interest rates.
It it increases the appeal of gold cause it has no intrinsic value, it's not yielding and so generally economic and geopolitical uncertainty are positive drivers for gold and that has been one of the reason as as a low correlation with other asset classes.
But it has been despite the uncertainty, it has been defying a lot of investors expectations.

Kevin Headland   12:21
Oh yeah, it's defining the laws of gravity almost. And it's interesting how many investors see gold as that inflation hedge. And they were surprised it didn't really rally in 2022 when inflation was elevated or sorry, 2020.
At 2021 and 2022.
But now it's rallying and as you said, it's it's not because of inflation. It's not that risk there. It is this idea essentially as central banks and governments actually add gold to their balance sheets in lieu of.
U.S. dollar backed holdings, which is kind of interesting where they're not getting rid of their U.S. dollar holdings, but they're diversifying their balance sheets. And one of the issues was because of the uncertainty with tariffs and the US economy and data.
Other governments were saying we want to go to other areas and we're going to gold. Now gold also is a momentum trade. You know, I don't want to say it's it's like Bitcoin, but gold ETF flows have gone materially higher. You know, it's a supply demand issue as investors are chasing these returns, as gold is moving higher, you know, momentum begets momentum, people are.
Investing in ETFs and gold moves higher. Where it goes is a whole other story. I think it's it's surpassed most people's targets already and people are talking about a gold bubble. Now bubbles don't necessarily always just pop.
But how much leg does this gold rally have left?

Macan Nia   13:54
Yeah, like you mentioned who's. So if we're trying to gauge the future prospects of it, as we know it, uncertainty is a driver of purchases of gold and I would think the uncertainty is going to continue for the next three years.
So those who are buying it.

Kevin Headland   14:11
Just three years. Just random three years.

Macan Nia   14:15
No, I think, you know, the current administration.

Kevin Headland   14:19
The next presidential election is that we're timing it.

Macan Nia   14:22
No, I'm just saying for the next, you know, what I know is for the next three years, I'm going to say as uh, you know, where's the odds of more uncertainty or less uncertainty? I think there's going to be more, just more day-to-day news flow and.
As you mentioned, central banks are big purchasers of ETF or excuse me of gold. That's likely to continue as not necessarily. Like you said, they want to diversify away from US Treasuries, but I think it is a bit of that, but it's not happening as.
Quickly as one might think. So fourth quarter of last year, Kev, nearly still 60% of central banks had U.S. dollar reserve holdings, right? So it's still a big part, but they're increasing their gold holdings.
And to give you some numbers, today it's roughly at 20% of reserves. Central bank, global central bank reserves are in gold. It's very close to replace surpassing treasuries in terms of reserves. So both are at 20%.
Uh, but as I mentioned, that's likely going to continue as we move forward. You mentioned Kev ETFs. So we've seen 10% increase in US holdings of gold and 70% increase in Chinese ETF holdings of gold.
So overall, gold holdings within ETFs are up 10% this year. And as the political uncertainty maybe continues, tariff policy uncertainty continues, you know, we'll be talking about in the next section, fiscal budgets and how much.
I mean overspending, there is still runway I think for gold. The question is at this magnitude where we've gone from 2500 to four, fourish in a matter of a year. I think those expectations unless I think unless things get really uncertain, which I hope is not the case.
Modest gains moving forward because ultimately his beauties in Eye of the Beholder.

Kevin Headland   16:27
Yeah, for sure. And I think as you said, just like a chart right here, investment is now the largest component of gold demand currently. Interesting enough, jewelry is still a material component. So invest the ETFs, so like the actual.

Macan Nia   16:38
When you say investment, what do you mean by that?
Oh, OK, OK. Not in the capital investments of the gold miners. Oh, OK, OK.

Kevin Headland   16:44
Investment of gold. So not such a banks, correct? Yeah, not such a banks, but actually investment. So demand for for gold as as a asset class. So it's quite interesting as I said, but but it's always funny as gold jewelry silver remains a large portion that over 450.
Tons are are for gold out of the call it 1200 tons of gold demand. So it's it's there's a jewish that stays there's kind of that's that's a stable part but vessels have gone higher 3000 was a key.
Level then 4000 to the next key level. Now we're above 4000. Do we get the 5000? You know, I wouldn't be chasing these rallies here and and anything that goes up parabolic. I'm always worried about chasing these these gold rallies. So well, we've always talked about gold as a component of a.
Asset allocation portfolio and it's it's there's no holding gold as a as a uncorrelated asset class. I would be careful but chase this as a a return driver at these levels.

Macan Nia   17:51
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I haven't. It's been, uh, very interesting. What are we now? 10 months of the year and gold has really benefited from the policy uncertainty, the uncertainty in general.
And that leads into. Sorry, yeah.

Kevin Headland   18:08
Sorry, one one last point there, Mark. I'm sorry. One thing I was reading as well is everyone asked about what could stop this rally or or puff this bubble and in gold and it's it's got to be a seller, right? Eventually you have more sellers than buyers. That's what.

Macan Nia   18:17
In gold.

Kevin Headland   18:24
Turns the corner and brings the price down. And when you think about what are the drivers of the demand for gold, why would they also become sellers? Why are central banks going to become sellers? Why are investment investors going to become sellers? And I think that's where we say perhaps.
The upside is not as great, but doesn't mean there's an impending pop to this bubble and we're going to see gold materially decline because again, the seller is not necessarily an obvious player rate now.

Macan Nia   18:51
Yeah, you're right. I think it's a matter of looking into next year, looking at who will be the new Federal Reserve governor or chairman, excuse me, and say how much of that has been priced in. Investors expect that it's going to be an individual, that it's going to be in a very.
Pro loose monetary policy mood. They're going to be cutting. How much of that is priced in? Because ultimately, OK, let's say the US economy is resilient. You cut significantly. I'm talking about not .25 or five or 1%. I'm talking extreme.
Numbers where they cut 2 to 3% very quickly. OK, that's positive for gold, right? In a sense that, you know, U.S. dollar, but at the same time, could you get inflation? OK, do central, does the US Federal Reserve at that point have to start raising rates?

Kevin Headland   19:36
Me.
Yeah.

Macan Nia   19:48
Uh, because inflation has gone up, there's a lot of different Rd. maps in terms of how this can unfold. The question is how much of the loose monetary policy expectations for next year are already priced in for gold. Uh, obviously some of it is. I I don't think all of it is because there's an uncertain premium there, but.

Kevin Headland   20:11
Yeah.
Do we crack 5000?

Macan Nia   20:20
I hope it, uh, maybe twenty-five percent isn't crazy, but if we're at 6000, that means that's not a good, that's not good, right? So I hope we're right on this one. So let's transition to the next part, interest rates, but specifically expectations.

Kevin Headland   20:25
Oh God, yeah, wild.

Macan Nia   20:37
Following the old economic books, you know when you get a recession, central bank or like your central bank cuts rates, the short end comes down, long end eventually comes down as well because they factor in weaker economic growth.
Uh, leading out. But what's interesting this time is we haven't necessarily got that dynamic where central banks in the short end are cutting and long end is also falling. In some situations we're seeing them actually increase on the long end. You're not getting this bull, uh, bull steepening that you typically see. You get this kind of like this.
As they call it a twist, right along the term structure and term premiums are driving bond yields higher. There's been a lot of work on this that they've said like the yields going up, it can go up for many reasons. One of them is a term premium. So what is a term premium?
It's the extra yield investors require for holding longer term, basically treasuries than a series of short ones. I need to be compensated for the risk of holding an instrument that's longer and dated. Why? There's just more uncertainty.
There's potential changes in interest rates. There's potential changes in inflation over the long run. So as a result, as an investor, I want to get paid more. And you've seen that aspect increase really over the last couple of months, which has gone against what some investors think. OK, US is going to cut rates. The long run is going to come down for sure. That hasn't been the case.
actually.

Kevin Headland   22:04
Yeah. When you look at the Federal Reserve, you mentioned with with gold as well, right now we're the market is pricing in about just under four rate cuts by September of next year. Sorry, just under five rate cuts, excuse me, by September next year, about 5 full rate cuts by the end of next.
By December of next year. So that's material and a lot of individuals even going back to last year were saying why don't we just go long duration, you know, TLT, which is a long duration Treasury ETF.
Let's just buy that and ride the wave down. And we've always talked about duration math, right? The longer you take a duration, the more sensitive visage rates, the bigger the return. It hasn't really worked that great. That volatility remains still there. The move index, which is the volatility index, similar to the VIX index for SP500, it's the.
The volatility index for the Treasury, it's come down, but still remains elevated relative to history. And if you're patient, the long duration trade can work. The yield is still attractive. The 10 year treasury yield is roughly around 4% right now. It's a nice little clip to coupon trade.
But we know investors tend to look at their statements, and if there's a move in the wrong direction right before the quarterly statements come out, you can quickly.
Eliminate much of that 4% yield if you get a backup in the treasury markets. For example, if the 10 year yield backs up 25 basis points and the average duration call it eight years, you quickly lose 2%. So you lose half of that 4% yield just by a quick bump in 25 basis points.
Of the of the 10 year treasury yield. That's not out of the realm of possibilities, I'd say. So I think when we look at this market right now, yes, we think the yield curve is is probably shifting lower, but I'd be cautious on long end duration right now just because.
I think there's better avenues in fixed income than U.S. Treasures right now.

Macan Nia   24:10
Yeah, it's not. It's not only a US centric story. You're seeing this dynamic unfold globally as well. And in terms of expectations of easier fiscal policy and you saw it in Japan there, I forget what exactly happened. Oh, there's a surprise victory of a leadership vote that individual.

Kevin Headland   24:16
No.
Yeah.

Macan Nia   24:30
Sanae Takaishi is generally easier fiscal policy and so you've seen long term Japanese bonds increase in yields. Also France is going through, you know, I think it's their second.
Not confident vote in a in a Prime Minister troubling for fiscal stability. France is looking is being viewed as OK, they're gonna spend, spend, spend kind of like the US. So it's not a US centric story, it's globally where you're seeing these term premiums increase.

Kevin Headland   24:49
That's.

Macan Nia   25:04
And just being cautious where, OK, typically when you cut rates in the short end, the long end has come down. But now you're seeing these twists as markets, you know, it's a way of the markets pricing in greater risk of fiscal, not uncertainty, but fiscal spending, larger budget deficits, they start impacting with central banks.

Kevin Headland   25:19
Yeah.

Macan Nia   25:23
Ability to really influence the broader economy just by doing monetary policy.

Kevin Headland   25:30
But you talk about these fiscal spending and increase in budgets and of course we know Europe announced finally to to unlock some of the fiscal constraints since the European credit crisis. And we have the one big beautiful bill in the US that it's probably, you know, it's going to add more to spending.
Many people have heard the term bond vigilante and and what does bond vigilante mean? It's essentially those that actually are looking to sell that long end of the of the treasury market and that causes some pressure to the upside in yields and the more these quote UN quote bond vigilantes are uncertain about.
The fiscal Um.
World, shall we say, or as more people spend. Listen, if you're getting more and more debt, like whether it's a government or a corporation, the yield I require, as you said, the premium should be higher. I'm taking more risk as you're more indebted. That's a risk and we should see that we had Argentina recently.
Having issues and the government, U.S. government actually helping them out so their bond yields don't jump as much the currency. So there's a lot of uncertainty there global you said on the long end of the curve, a lot of it because of government spending.

Macan Nia   26:45
Yeah, and last point, last time the Fed cut rates was last September, the 10 year treasuries left 3.6. By the end of that year it had been closer to 4.8, so.

Kevin Headland   26:56
It's still higher now, just at 4%.

Macan Nia   26:57
Yeah, so let's transition. We got a couple minutes left. We thought, you know, with Halloween coming up, we would end it off with something fun and Halloween, uh, spending. So no surprise there.
It's I think we did this before, Kevin, one of the most recent one. Halloween is the third most. I guess it depends on your survey, but it's top three in terms of favorite holidays and the.

Kevin Headland   27:23
Yeah.
Is it Is it a holiday?
I think, I think the next day should be a holiday for kids who are, you know, going trick or treating in the, you know, we can have the next day of school, but.

Macan Nia   27:34
Well, what defines? OK, well, what defines a holiday then?

Kevin Headland   27:36
I I take a day off personally, but hey, that's just me.

Macan Nia   27:41
Do you consider the Super Bowl a whole day?

Kevin Headland   27:44
It should be.

Macan Nia   27:44
Valentine's Day.

Kevin Headland   27:47
Well now we're just getting into it, sure. I don't know.

Macan Nia   27:48
I'm just saying Mother's Day, Father. But you know what? I was looking at this study. They say favorite favorite day of the year. Mother Day comes in 5th, which is nice. Father's Day is 10.

Kevin Headland   27:52
Yeah.
My birthday.

Macan Nia   28:04
Oh gosh. But so I was reading this thing where they say chocolate consumption, obviously. Do you think, OK, which one has more chocolate consumption, Valentine's Day or or Halloween?

Kevin Headland   28:06
No surprise there.
Oh yeah.

Macan Nia   28:22
You guessing or no? You look. Oh, you said Halloween. Are you? Yeah, it is Halloween. Slightly more than Valentine's Day. I would have thought it would have crushed Valentine's Day, but it doesn't. Followed by Easter. But Top ordered candy on Instagram.

Kevin Headland   28:24
I said that's right said Halloween.
Yeah, sorry.

Macan Nia   28:41
In October, what do you think they are?

Kevin Headland   28:43
Instacart. Really. Geez, I know lazy people.

Macan Nia   28:45
Yeah, so you've there's I I looked, I looked at a bunch of these studies and they all have the same ones.

Kevin Headland   28:50
OK, what's the biggest order?

Macan Nia   28:53
Yeah, like, what's most favorite? What do your kids want to get in there? Actually, no, chips isn't even on.

Kevin Headland   28:57
Chips.
Yeah, that's my favorite. Sorry.

Macan Nia   29:03
So I'll tell you, it's Reese's Peanut Butter Cups.

Kevin Headland   29:05
I know, I have no idea.
Oh yeah, no one ever has those anymore. I I raid my kids bags and I look for them and they're like, they're not even in there anymore. I'm like, the heck.

Macan Nia   29:10
OK.
Peanut M&M's, which also I I concur with M&M's KitKat #4. Really. People like KitKats. I find those are like and it's so on and so forth and a terrible gummy bears. But you said that, you know.
My kids are dressing up. I always find it funny to see what they pick. My oldest is being a carrot this year. My youngest is Mona Lisa. So very different. But you said you had a very different, very different kids. But you said you had a funny story growing up.

Kevin Headland   29:42
What? Mona Lisa? That's a wild.
Well, it's interesting because my dad's birthday is Halloween. Can you imagine that? The poor man, he's come home from work, you know, just can barely even get undressed and and relax on his birthday. And me and my sister are like, dad, dad, come on, take us out for trick or treating. It's like what I, you know, a crappy kind of way to spend your birthday, you know?

Macan Nia   30:12
How did he like it as a kid though? Is that a pro or a con?
Oh, congratulations, pop like a headland.

Kevin Headland   30:26
So it's so I have to ask him how it was when it when he was a kid. But it's so it was always interesting because it's Halloween and that's it and I was tough for him growing up. The other thing is I don't know you're you're like about five years younger than me or so you remember that Halloween costumes where it was like.

Macan Nia   30:26
I love.

Kevin Headland   30:45
Plastic masks and you're like barely breathe and you're you're like, it's all getting. I'm just sweaty and and oh my oh and and and then you wear plastic like costume over you. Like now these costumes are are well made, they're eccentric, they're elaborate, like cost you money.

Macan Nia   30:49
Oh yeah, you can still smell the like the plasticky smell in it.

Kevin Headland   31:03
I don't need my kids haven't decide what they're going as yet. I gotta narrow it down because they better hurry up.

Macan Nia   31:08
So to give you an example, when I was in grade one, my costume was basically a garbage man. So my mom, you know, got a garbage bag, put it over me. We glued pieces of garbage on me and I, you know, made the face a little bit dark. And then I just told you my youngest, my wife's putting the the.
Halloween costume together. It's Mona Lisa's. So she's got all this like much more effort from the moms these days than the mom. God love my mom. Lots of effort. But the Halloween game wasn't.

Kevin Headland   31:37
Yeah.
How do you dress as Mona Lisa?

Macan Nia   31:41
She's got a picture frame. She's gonna be dressed, I think as Mona Lisa, like look like her. And then she's. Yeah. Oh, it's it's. I'm having no part of it. I will be there to walk him around. But I'm not. I'm not artsy to. Oh, it would look horrible if I did it. But yeah, things have changed the money spent on how.

Kevin Headland   31:43
My God.
Same. That's my job.

Macan Nia   32:01
me now and we'll look at the difference in costumes. Mine, 40 years ago compared to, oh my gosh, that sounds so old. 40 years ago with, oh god, that was my old moment of the day. But yeah, in my day, costumes used to cost the dollars. Now it's a moneymaker.

Kevin Headland   32:05
Oh yeah.
Yeah, in my day.

Macan Nia   32:21
But yeah, so if you have any Reese's Peanut Butter, if your kids have any Reese's Peanut Butter Cups, you know those are gonna be a snake from them. But love Halloween. Great time of the year. It's just fun to be someone you're not. So I think that's a good place to stop there, Kev. There's been a lot on the head.

Kevin Headland   32:35
It is.

Macan Nia   32:40
Headlines government shutdown. We don't think that that's gonna be. I doubt by the time that this is even released that we're talking about that gold. It's rally. Not doubt, but you know.

Kevin Headland   32:48
Yeah, I would, I would say doubt, but maybe the the odds are are perhaps in our favor that they'll get a resolution. That's something.

Macan Nia   32:54
Yeah, and I think the odds are in our favor of there being a resolution sooner rather than later. Gold has had an incredible run on policy uncertainty. We think that there's still runway in the gold story, but just be cautious of expectations of returns.
And then interest rates, like we said, maybe the traditional economic books aren't aren't as relevant today because typically when central banks cut, the long end comes down. But that has not generally been the case this time around because we have a dominance of loose fiscal spending that bond investors are paying attention.
To and that has and will have implications for bond investors, especially those that want to increase duration. You know it does come with risk and Halloween. Can't wait for it. And last but not least, Kev, Jay's 22. Are we going to take this or not?

Kevin Headland   33:47
I'm cheering for them. Hopefully it's today's game, game five will be a pivotal game. If we can win this, we're closing off court tips, but it's like it'll be while they came back tied at 2-2. Now it's just everyone's getting caught up in the wave. It's it's awesome. A lot of fun.

Macan Nia   33:53
Thanks Tabs.
When you watch teams that win championships and we haven't seen many of them in Toronto, but we've seen one in recent times, you need a lot of stories to go right. And I was just thinking last night IKF comes in, he has, he hasn't even batted or he, I think he's played two games and he goes, he's had two big hits. Everyone's contributed.
Bidding doesn't matter who's in the lineup. Yeah, crazy Mad Max 41 year old looks like a 20 year old. It's just a lot of positive things are happening and hopefully they can keep the momentum so.
Baseballs fickle, but I'm optimistic.

Kevin Headland   34:37
More fun watching baseball than paying attention to the markets.

Macan Nia   34:40
Yeah, October baseball is the best. So I think that's a good time to stop. Wanna thank everyone for listening in. We do extremely value listening in. We know you have a whole a lot of options out there in terms of podcasts. Like we say, if you have half an hour, put us on in the background, promise you you'll learn.
At least one thing in 1/2 hour. Can't promise you anymore. If you have friends or colleagues or other investors that are like-minded, please, you know, not reference, but please, you know, recommend our podcast. Also rate it highly. It does do wonders for our numbers. Any last thoughts, Kev?

Kevin Headland   35:17
Just one thing, good news, we might be getting downloaded Antarctica. I have, I have come to a couple of advisors who one may be going there and one has a friend who's going there. So I look forward to that to getting finally downloaded in Antarctica. It's been my my my job asking people to download it.

Macan Nia   35:21
Oh, God.

Kevin Headland   35:36
Antarctica.

Macan Nia   35:37
I know Kevin's 2025 could not go any better than if there's one download in Antarctica to end the year. I hear it this is a nauseum. So for my own sanity, please someone downloaded it in Antarctica. But I think that that's a good place to stop. Kev, as always, wonderful conversation. I want to thank everyone and.
See you in the next one. Take care.