Episode 116 | “Womenomics” and investing for longevity

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We're just, you know, older children almost like, you know, we're evolved children, essentially. Or like I said, we're just dogs. Like we're just a slightly smarter version of that.

 

Long term macroeconomic trends such as aging demographics and persistent inflation have drawn attention to the importance of longevity, meaning life is a leader in longevity, and our research indicates that women face an even greater risk of financial shortfalls in retirement.

 

Women are and investing for longevity explores the profound impact women have had on the economy over time and how their evolving choices shaped macroeconomic data, financial markets, and policy decisions. In this episode of Investments Unplugged, we dive into the current environment and emphasize the critical considerations necessary when investing for longevity. Listen on. This is Investments unplugged.

 

Welcome to Investments Unplugged.

I'm your host, Macan Nia, co-chief investment strategist here at Manulife Investments. And as always, I'm joined here with Kevin Headland, my partner in crime.

How's it going, Macan?

Yeah. Good. How are you doing? Not too bad. Not too bad.

Looking forward to the end of this eternal winter. So since we're the groundhog said we're gonna have early spring.

 

I'm still waiting for it. Tell that to people in northeastern, the US a couple of weeks ago, but no kidding. For this investment supply, what we thought we would do is celebrate International Women's Day. You know, International Women's Day falls in the month of March. And we thought we’d celebrate on this Investments Unplugged. Now, what is International Women's Day?

 

Right. Like what does it stand for? It's really like a celebration of women's achievements across all fields. Right. And it's a call to action for, you know, gender equality worldwide. It's recognized today we have in 100 plus countries in the UN. This wasn't a movement that started overnight. This has been decades in the making. And it's first roots started with Kevin early 1900s born out of the labor and suffrage movement.

 

And in 1911, the first International Women's Day was celebrated in European countries, very progressive. So as Europeans go back in 1911 and then in 1975, the UN recognized it. And today we have, you know, across the board governments, companies, schools, communities worldwide celebrate this day. And I think back to me, growing up, we didn't celebrate this in elementary school.

 

And now it's very cool to see that, you know, our kids are celebrating it. And AOB, not that we'll see how it progresses the next hundred years, but be very impressive to see how this evolves over the next 100 years. It's impressive when you see how far back we went, and perhaps less impressive how long it took to be recognized for wide and nationally, how important it is.

 

So it's nice to see the recognition and hopefully it continues to improve and expand. Yeah. And that momentum is definitely in the right direction. And we thought on today's podcast, we'd celebrate International Women's Day through the lens of really the main Life Longevity Institute and the importance of longevity and women when it comes to finance. Late last year, I think it was in November, mainly in light, or announced the launch of the Longevity Institute.

 

What is it? It's a global platform, and the goal is to help people live longer while they live longer, live healthier lives and be more financially secure. And I mean, they've put a lot of significant, amount of money behind this institute. They invested $350 million with the goal of working with research, innovation and partnerships to help people thrive as they age.

 

It's so interesting how really health and welfare so intertwined. If you're not healthy, you're all through doesn't happen. And if you're not, you know, you don't have wealth, your health is going to suffer. And I think that's one of the issues with being prepared, for living longer. Even the, Mayor John Hancock, launched a longevity preparedness index.

 

It was actually developed with the help of the MIT age lab. And you see, it measures how you, as adults, are ready to thrive as they age. And she's going to expand into Canada in the coming years. And it's just so important to get as we live longer lives. It's important not to outlive our our life.

 

Investments are a huge thing. I remember when I first started industry, you know, call called 25 years ago. So, we just have a, rule of thumb that said, your equity allocation should be 100 miser each. And it really worked in the 80s when, you know, yields were were much higher than they are today. And I think it's important to understand the the changing dynamics now with the fact that as we live older, we have to make sure our wealth is prepared to last throughout our retirement, not just the beginning of our time, but throughout the time.

 

Again, mainly this has launched this, vitality program, which is kind of an insurance program which actually gives you incentive to live a healthier life, which thinking about that, if you live healthier in the act, you better for insurance companies, better for you. It's all part and parcel and everything as you know, as a as a financial institution in Canada to combine health and wealth together, I think it's quite interesting the avenues that man has put together over the last few years, why the main Life Vitality program has been such a success, as they've been able to connect with how people have an increased chance of, you know, having healthier habits.

 

And what they do is it's based on an incentive program. You do something that's healthy in your life and you get a reward. And the rewards are not immaterial. There are things that you would want, whether it's a smartphone, whether it is points of Aeroplan. They have a lot of cool things to earn, and it's interesting they made that link between incentives and action.

 

 

So there's research spanning Cab 40 years. There's 40,000 participants. And what the research shows is challenging. But more importantly, specific goals outperform vague or, you know, do your best goals by an average of almost 15%. So this program does a really good job of connecting that. Now, I think this is a good time to introduce our guest. This this month's Investments Unplugged guest is Erica Camilleri.

 

 

So Erica is the director on our multi-asset solution team. The team focuses on global macro and also multi-asset strategy. She's an incredible resource here at Manulife. We've all worked together very closely since Erica started many years ago in the rotation program. I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that she makes a mean focaccia. Very delicious.

 

So first time guest, welcome to the podcast, Erica.

 

Thanks so much for having me. I'm happy to be on.

 

Yeah. So, Erica, you've done aside from your job here, you know, being a director of the team, you've looked at a lot on the in terms of the relationship, not just of long gender, but the relationship between longevity and women. And what's the like the main risk for women when it comes to longevity? Given your research?

 

Absolutely. So, you know, I sit on the multi-asset solutions team and we do manage the retirement products and solutions for Manulife. So when you're managing retirement assets, the concept of longevity is near and dear to our hearts. And we've done a ton of proprietary research in this space.

 

And what we find is that, you know, as Kevin and Macan mentioned, longevity risk is increasing for everyone. But our research also suggests that longevity risk is higher for females than it is for males. So our research suggests that in Canada, women's shortfall risk is 34%, whereas for men it's just 29%. Now, this is pretty concerning.

 

If you've been, say, consistently saving for 40 years and contributing 5% of your income with a 5% employer match, and this is assuming all other factors are equal, which is a very conservative assumption. So we know that women tend to live longer than males. Their life expectancy is longer. But you know, when we look at other variables, we look at things like, you know, females taking a break, from their careers to potentially take care of children and parents.

 

 

They also generally earn less than men, which increases that shortfall risk even more. So overall, there's a lot of research to suggest that women face this higher shortfall risk. I was absolutely shocked to find out that a 65 year old woman retiree is a 50/50 chance of living beyond 90, and a 25% chance of living beyond 94. So when we look at these numbers, it is something that people need to, you know, factor in to their their financial plans and, and something that everyone needs to be paying attention to, but even even more so for women, that's astounding.

 

And when you think about 25% chance that you pass 94, you're in retirement for 30 years, almost, almost, equated the fact that you're in the as long as you were working that you really talked about the interesting part there, Erica, is the you don't think of that because you say, oh, 5% per year and 5% match and a rate of return and compounding and that break, that break is so important when you think about the calculations of return profile because normally just compound, oh, you're going to invest every year for 20 years.

 

Compound it and just equals the numbers. So that break is really material. Which is quite interesting. Now, Erica, you often use the term women on this, in your presentations. And, you know, a lot of we've done presentation on that, that topic. What do you mean by by women? Omics it's such a such a great term.

 

But what does it really mean? So your point, about, you know, taking a break and the, the impacts it can have for your savings. I'll give you a personal anecdote. My mom is a teacher, and she has a defined benefit pension plan, and she took about four years off. And when my brother and I were born, and even with her exceptionally generous, defined benefit plan, her retirement income is 11% less than it would have been if she kept working for those four years.

 

So I come from a household. I see this with my two eyes and and the reality is my generation, Gen Zs, millennials, I mean, most of them won't even have defined benefit pension plans. You can think about what that impact would be if you were, say, you know, using a DC plan, but, you know, kind of bridging the gap here to your your question about woman Amex woman Amex the term was really coined back in 2013, in Japan.

And it's a it's a pretty interesting story here. Right. So when we think about longevity risk, we think about the idea of, aging, aging populations and rising life expectancies. Now, if there is one region that is the poster child of aging demographics, it's absolutely Japan. So back in the, you know, 90s, they saw a huge drop in population.

 

And this led to anemic macro economic growth. This led to super low inflation. And it ultimately led to an an environment where deflation was so bad they had to lower interest rates below zero to stimulate the economy. Now why does this matter? Well, it matters because at the time, President Abe, you know, initiated epidemics. And with that, there was really three pillars.

 

And the first was monetary easing, like I mentioned, to lower rates. The second was fiscal stimulus. As we know, they have a debt to GDP ratio of over 200%. But the third was structural reform. And this is where the woman nomics piece really comes into play. He recognized that there was a potential for economic growth prospects to improve simply by integrating women into the workforce.

So the Japanese government introduced several initiatives aimed at addressing the barriers that women faced in the labor market. This included childcare support, work life balance, policies, encouraging female leadership, tax and social security reforms, and just a broad general support for reentering the workforce. So they did this to improve the labor force participation rate. And at the end of the day, when we think about economic growth, it really comes down to your labor force and your productivity.

 

So focusing on getting more women into the labor force is something that is going to better your economic outcomes. Yeah. And I just mentioned I think the research shows that women entering the labor force generally boosts productivity. And you can think about how much is progress over. I think women now represent roughly 40% of the global workforce, and the participation is across every major industry.

 

And as you mentioned to Erica, it's, you know, despite the population challenges just going through Abenomics, it's allowed to, you know, introduce some sort of labor market stability, within the Japanese population today when it comes to labor force, productivity, participation, there's a lot of focus on AI. But as you mentioned, you know, women, women, nomics is a very powerful force, maybe even more powerful than AI today.

So talk to us in terms of why wingman nomics is so important for economies across the world. As we move forward. Absolutely. So if we look at just general labor force participation rate, so this would be those that are, actively engaged in the job market. So if you're on a sabbatical, you're not looking for work. You're not included in this number.

 

Now, when we look at U.S. labor force participation rates and even in Canada as well, there's a clear structural trend for males. And not since the 1950s, male labor force participation rates have steadily declined. Now, this is not the same situation for female labor force participation rates. In fact, they've actually improved dramatically since the 1950s. Now, why is that the case?

 

No, it's not because men are leaving the workforce to play video games. Although there was a few blogs in the pandemic that pointed to that. I mean, it really was an aging boomer population that kind of drove a lion's share of the reduction of females into the labor force. Let's focus on what's been driving the female labor force.

 

Start higher. Well, it started with the Industrial Revolution. Then you had education, then you had contraceptives, which allowed women to be able to pursue post-secondary education and all of these different factors. But it's so important that these things happen and that women were joining the labor force, because at the end of the day, we need those women. So employment and labor force participation peaked in 2000.

So while, you know, as someone who works in the capital markets, we often focus on the cyclical trend of of the labor market. We look at the structural trend. We have a structurally tight labor market, right. So the US employment to population ratio is only 60%. There are currently the same amount of unemployed people as there are job openings.

 

So we need these females in the workforce. And to make things worse, people are having less babies, right. So if we think about how we are, you know, repopulating, people are having less babies and we also have immigration that in most developed markets now is not a tailwind for population growth. It's a headwind. Right. So if you want economic growth, you need a lot of people working.

 

And not having females in the labor force is a is a bit of a mess. Right. And we need those women to be in the labor force to improve our growth prospects. Yeah, that's a really good point. If you want economic growth, you need people when you have higher cost of living, you need both, you know, the husband and the wife working to try to make ends meet as well.

 

And that just further compounds that longevity risk as well. So it's a combo of everything. Yeah. It's interesting how you you mentioned dual income know, especially in Toronto and in major city centers need that. And that also perhaps reduces your, your, affordability to have more children as well. Right. So even increase the population rate and it's, it's almost like it's funny how if you look at these charts and you sees improvements and increases in female participation in labor force, it's like somehow they own this untapped resource.

 

There's like, oh, man. Or, you know, dwindling in terms of ability. How are we going to back to this? Oh, let's well, I hope we can let women work. And, you know, you talk about this and it was such a a negative stigma if you go back to the 50s. Right, you think about the homemaker and housewife and what's going to happen.

 

And it's just enough. And, Erica, in your research here, it's kind of funny. I look at you when you tried to use and there was a research done by, by Pew Research, and it asked children about their views of the split of household tasks as women are working more in labor force. That doesn't it hasn't changed that all the other tasks that they're responsible for have been responsible for and and that perhaps males and I will take myself as one have been, less aggressive in taking on more and more and more.

 

Right. And so, do you think that that research did I, that I found very, very interesting, the children's perspective, maybe not the actual, but the child's perspective and how they're seen as their parents. Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, while females have been increasing their labor force participation, they've been driving further economic growth. But at the end of the day, a lot of females have maintained a lot of the same domestic responsibilities that they were in charge of before the lion's share of women actually started to work.

 

Right. So to that study, you you pointed out, they asked children of two working parents. That's key here. They're the dual income households who does more in the home with the working parents and almost every question had an an answer in which the mother did disproportionately more than the male, the father. So, for example, when it came to managing children's schedules and activities, only 6% of kids stated that dad did more taking care of the kids when they're sick.

 

It was still 6%. Now, it's nice to see that the, the fathers have have picked up their feet when it comes to playing or doing activities with the children and along with disciplining them, because those were the highest ranked. I love that this, played with the men with the dad. That's great. And we play with them.

 

That's great. Friends, it gets better. Even those those were the leading categories. And you guys are still only at 17% of kids stating that their their dad did more, putting this all together and kind of tying it back to the macro dynamics here, it really makes you question what's the economic value of housework, right? Isn't the work that's done at home work 200%?

 

And, you know, when we think about the pandemic, right. And we think about the time that people went into lockdown and in many cases, people's support staff, whether it be daycare, whether it be nannies, whether it be their cleaners, whether it be, you know, the people taking care of their elderly parent. Right. Think about retirement homes. A lot of that went away.

 

And it drew a light on the amount of unpaid domestic responsibilities that females tend. To, to, take on. And there was a study done that this unpaid work, could have actually represented almost 20% of GDP. So we saw that GDP completely collapsed during 2020. But it's not that people were working. They were just working inside the house, not getting paid for it and therefore not contributing to traditional metrics of economic growth.

 

So you know that 2020, 2021 period was a time that it did shine a light kind of on this concept. And at the end of the day, this is something, keeping keeping woman out of the labor force, especially in regions like Toronto where daycare is just so expensive. Right. And if you have two, three or even four kids that break even, rate it is pretty darn high, right?

 

I'm very, very fortunate that my my wife is actually a stay at home mom. We we did the economics, early on. She was laid off after, her second maternity leave, unfortunately. And we do that can makes exactly that. It made more sense, everywhere else. And we can afford it. However, I am reminded frequently, of that economic cost or the the fact that, if I broke down all the tasks that she performs as her mom, I would not be able to perform at the able to afford that overall total salary.

 

So it's a it's a very, thankful that I have that opportunity that she stays at all that, they'll have to pay for those services. Yeah. I find it funny that the Pew Research Institute had you had to do a study on this. Who who holds most of the who does most of the responsibility at home?

 

Just go to any school yard and they'll tell you that I think it's obvious, but it is interesting that children's view. Right. Sometimes you don't think about the child's view and how they view it. And I was going to say, you know, my kid, you have two daughters, I have one daughter. It's almost more important for us to show, our daughters that this is not the go forward mindset, right?

 

That it should be the woman's task. And it's important for them to see a change. And hopefully in years, if you ask that same study, change, kids views because men will be doing more, shared responsibilities and there's no doubt about that. If Pew is conducting this research during my dad's generation or dad's generation, those numbers would have been at 0 to 3%.

 

So now it's 20%. Hopefully it will be, you know, just increased. So you know, let's transition to some of the risks. We talked about the risk to you know, minimize or minimize longevity risk. And in this very fluid. And that's a very nice way of saying it. Fluid market backdrop. It introduces other risks potentially to that. And in today's market backdrop, we were talking a lot more about correlations right within equities correlations across markets.

 

We're talking about higher correlations between equities and fixed income. There's a ton of stats out there right for relation between TSX, S&P 70%, MSCI world to TSX or so, S&P 590%. And concentration risks are higher today too. And all the reason I'm bringing up a increases the risks to portfolios. It makes them maybe more vulnerable to certain themes or factors.

 

So from your point of view, what are some current risks that investors need to navigate to minimize this longevity risk over the long run? It's not just aging lifespans that are contributing to these higher risks around longevity. The other thing we actually haven't spoken about yet, which, is is surprising is inflation, right? So, you know, at the end of the day, cyclical inflation is moderated.

 

And most developed markets we're seeing that inflation is moving towards central bank targets. But at the end of the day structural inflation is still high. Right. If we think about the price level shock that most households have absorbed over the past five years, it's still it's still high. Right. The aggregate basket of goods has increased by over 35% over the past five years, and most wages haven't kept up.

 

So, you know, acknowledging that inflation is structurally higher and that inflation on a long term basis is likely to average in the mid to high twos rather than the high ones and low twos, as we saw prior to the pandemic. We did some research on what would the impact on retirement portfolios be. If you assume, say, a 40 basis point increase shift in expected inflation?

 

And truly the results were staggering. So for a 30 year old, if you assume inflation is going to be 40 basis points higher, it requires a 30 year old, to save 19% more. They need 19% more assets for their retirement simply because of inflation. So when you put the aging lifespans, together with the inflation dynamics, it really gives us something to think about.

 

Now from our perspective, on the multi-asset solutions team, you know, what do we do about rising longevity risk, right. What what can people do to mitigate this in today's macro environment? And we we put forward three solutions. The first one sounds pretty simple, but it's harder to do in practice. It's to increase your contribution rate. So our research suggests that increasing your contribution rate to 15% over the long term can significantly reduce shortfall risk.

 

We found that 5% contributions have a high probability of increasing shortfalls, and we've seen in our research that a female putting away just 5% of their income still faces a shortfall risk of about 83%. Right. So that's that is pretty high. And it's it's challenging. Right. Like I come to you I'm a Gen Z and I understand how hard it is to think about retirement in today's environment.

 

Yeah. When the starter home is $2 million, when you have ten destination weddings over a two year span to go to, it is hard to think about putting away 15% for your retirement. But I think what we need to be doing is educating people early on in their careers about the risk about not thinking about your retirement.

 

Which brings me to my next solution. And in my view, the most powerful one of them all, which is to really maximize your accumulation rate. And this is why we need to be doing a better job. When people are in their adolescent years at teaching them. I'll give you an example here. We did a study and we have two people.

 

These two people both save $600,000 for their retirement. The difference is that person A started saving at 25 and person B started saving at 35. They earn the similar amount every single year. So we are assuming a 6% return every year. That which is very, very conservative. Especially if you are, you know, taking appropriate investment risk for your age, which will bring me to my next solution.

 

But no. So we look at these two people, they both contribute $500,000 by retirement. The only difference is that person age starts at 25. Person B starts at 35. The person who started at 35 is going to have 47% less retirement assets at the age of 65. That means that instead of having $2 million for retirement, you'd have $1.4 million.

 

That's $600,000. Delta is simply because you started at 35 instead, at 25. Exact same investments, exact same amount contributed over the time period. So these are the types of studies that we need to be presenting to people, you know, in their university years as they start their full time jobs and showing them like the power of compounding, really, when you're in your in your early years.

 

And that's just like the power of compounding one. But also while these c my daunting goals, if you start earlier like just small incremental changes at an earlier age in your life can have a very profound impact in terms of, longevity. Right? Absolutely. The other thing that we also suggest, is to ultimately take appropriate investment risk.

 

Now, what most research would suggest is that people, are overly conservative when it comes to their asset allocation, right? Especially in the defined contribution world, some people don't really know what it means. Some people don't understand, you know, the benefits of maybe taking on further risk, especially if you're in, you know, your 20s, 30s and even 40s.

 

So for us, taking that appropriate investment risk is going to lead to a better outcome. So from our perspective, you know, growth asset exposure is ultimately critical to reducing shortfall risk. And that's why when we construct our retirement portfolios here at Manulife, we avoid a static asset allocation through retirement. So we have that through rather than that to glide path, which allows people at the beginning of their retirement to, you know, still have exposure to assets that can generate higher returns.

 

You know, as you guys mentioned at the beginning of the call, people are retired for a long time right now. Right? I think about my parents. They've got to retire in their mid 50s due to the public sector defined benefit plans. I know, I know, that interpretation I know gets me to but you know, you think about, you think about, a retirement period that could be 40 years long.

 

Well, you can be, you know, taking on some, some higher equity risk at the beginning of your retirement. You don't have to dump your money into bonds, right. When you retire. Right. And and Kevin and Mark and I know you, you, deal with this a lot more in your day to day. But at the end of the day, it's this investment risk that's going to ultimately lead to a better outcome for retirement.

 

It studies have shown actually, even, traditionally women have been more conservative in their investment approach as well. So that that only, adds to the fact that, financial advice earlier on is so important. The benefits of understanding these rules, understanding the opportunities and the risks, understanding that you don't need your money for retirement day one, you need it to last throughout and past your retirement.

 

Ideally, and, you know, ideally, you still have money left over to, to bequeathed to your, your beneficiaries. So that makes a lot of sense. And, it's so again, that financial advice part is so important in understanding the different, tools. Right. The two of us saying RSP. In our last podcast, we talked to John Italian about the benefits of TFSA and Rrsps and some of the the tax, savings that can actually add, and compound to your overall net worth and ability to avoid, longevity risk.

 

 

So you just understand these little things, understanding that the different notion of that is available to you in retirement as well. So when we look at the holistic approach to investing and make sure we don't have shortfall, the investment decisions, the timing, the advice, they get right decisions, it's all together compounding on one big large project, shall we say.

 

So it's it's quite easy for that. Erica, I want to really thank you for this. This has been quite interesting and great. Thank you Erica. We know you're a little bit under the weather too, so we appreciate the extra help.

 

I hope I wasn’t too nasally.

No no no no, it's insightful. I think it's, it's worth exploring further.

 

So this is great. Great timing. And we'll definitely, have you on again, to talk about, not just womenomics, but, a lot of your other day to day roles with, within Manulife. So I really appreciate you coming on today. So thanks very much.

Thanks for having me.

 

And I guess I always let's, end it there.

 

I think this is a great, place to stop. So I think it's been a, a lot of fun, some learnings as well. I said that I learned a lot about the, the views of children and their parents, and that's, a little bit take home project for me. Help your wives. I try to all the time.

 

Trust me. Probably not enough. Definitely not enough. But we're definitely try to do our way. But that was a really interesting discussion. I enjoyed that as a, Kevin and Macan this has been a national flood. Please, reshare, repost, listen, wherever you can, we believe that, if you want to comment or write us, please do.

 

It helps like minded, individuals find us on podcast players as, we like to say, put us on the background. We help you, you learn at least one thing. A half hour with us. So thanks very much for joining us today. Cheers. Thank you.

 

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