Foresight May 2022: macro themes and market outlook

The world is a different place than it was even three months ago: Cautious optimism around normalization during the second half of the year has long since been clouded over by the fog of war. Another wave of COVID-19-induced lockdowns in China has also washed over supply chains the world over. Where do we go from here? While there are several unknowns, we do have growing confidence in the underlying themes that should continue to dominate the next several months.

Policy pivots will come

At present, market participants and pundits are aggressively trying to out-hawk one another: In the United States, market-implied probabilities have factored in almost 10 additional rate hikes over the next year; Canada isn’t far off that mark either. While Europe and the United Kingdom aren’t being priced as aggressively, the nearly 6 hikes factored into that region are a far cry from the unchanged rates expected as recently as last fall.1

We believe that markets will start to adjust their expectations and price out some of these moves by the autumn. Specifically, we expect that the warning bells rung by the Bank of England, which effectively signaled concern over the United Kingdom’s growth outlook, are likely to echo across other regions. In essence, while the inflationary outlook is far from certain, there could come a point at which it’s no longer by far the dominating concern as it is now; instead, concerns about growth will once again factor into central bank decision-making. 

In our view, any sign that inflation is moving toward an acceptable level will be used as cover to avert too bumpy a landing.

In most parts of the world, one key theme that will likely concern markets and central banks alike is declining consumer confidence, which has been shaken as higher interest rates and rising prices have eroded spending power. While employment isn’t a point of concern at this stage, market volatility could be. Investors should note that there are regional flavors to account for as well: In the United States, inventory overshoots in some areas (even as shortages continue to materialize in others) could add to the overall sense of uncertainty, while in Canada, a levered consumer and booming housing market will only serve to make the tightrope that the Bank of Canada (BoC) has to walk even more precarious—an overly aggressive hiking sequence could lead to material consequences. Europe’s proximity to Ukraine and its dependence on Russian energy could be a material disruption to both prices and production activities, which has previously been counted on as a key driver in the continent’s postpandemic recovery—Germany seems particularly at risk here.

Five-year asset class forecasts—expected return components (%)
Chart of five-year asset class forecasts, expected returns in U.S. dollar terms, as of April 28, 2022. The asset allocation team’s expected five-year total returns for various asset classes are as follows: 2.6% for U.S. large cap, 7.2% for European equities, 9.4% for emerging-market equities, and 9.9% for Japanese equities. Over the period, the team also expects global natural resources to return 7.4%, U.S. high-yield bonds to return 4.0%, and emerging-market debt to return 6.5%.

Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, April 28, 2022. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end. EMEA represents Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. TIPS represents Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. REITs represent real estate investment trusts. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

Inflation: from COVID-19 driven to conflict driven

As we’ve mentioned previously, the narrative around inflation has evolved in recent months. While it used to center on pandemic-related supply chain distortions, discussions are now focused on the potential fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The former looked set to unwind over the second half of the year and gave us an added measure of conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)—and other central banks—will have the flexibility they need to comfortably slow their pace of tightening. Unfortunately, the war has placed additional upward pressure on prices. Worryingly, the region’s production focus is affecting specific areas of consumer demand (food and energy) that aren’t, academically speaking, considered part of core inflation but are paradoxically core to the consumer, and therefore relatively inelastic. Consequently, as a bigger chunk of the consumer’s disposable income is spent on food and energy, less will be available for discretionary items. The rising interest-rate environment that we’re going into will almost certainly exacerbate the situation and could lead to slowing growth as the adjustment is fully absorbed. 

Tactical perspectives
(6–12 months)
Asset allocation team’s 6- to 12-month allocation view on equities, as of April 28, 2022. The team has a moderate overweight stance on Canadian equities. It has a neutral view on European, Japanese, and Chinese equities. Over the same time horizon, it has a moderately underweight view on U.S. equities and emerging-market equities. On the fixed-income and alternative assets front, the team has a moderate underweight stance on government bonds in the United States, Canada, and developed economies. However, it has a moderately positive view on emerging-market debt, U.S. high-yield, U.S. investment grade, listed infrastructure, and global natural resources. The team is neutral on real estate investment trusts in the six-to-12-month period.
Strategic perspectives
(3–5 years)
Over a three- to five-year period, the team has a moderately underweight stance on U.S. equities, U.S. government bonds, Canadian government bonds, and developed-market bonds. Over this period, it has a neutral view of European equities, Japanese equities, Chinese equities, and real estate investment trusts. The team is moderately positive about Canadian equities, emerging-market equities, emerging-market debt, U.S. high yield, U.S. investment-grade debt, global natural resources and listed infrastructure. Over the three to five-year period, the team is neutral on real estate investment trusts.
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of April 28, 2022. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

    Equities

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately underweight stance on U.S. equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Market sentiment has tumbled in recent months as uncertainty soared and volatility spiked—U.S. equities haven’t been spared. Proponents of the asset class are right to note that valuations have contracted to the point where they’re almost in line with historical averages and that the United States remains the developed market with the most attractive growth profile. Even so, we believe that concerns about a slowdown over the second half of the year and tightening financial conditions justify a more cautious stance that’s closer to a neutral or underweight position on a tactical basis. On a structural basis, the United States has the healthiest long-term economic profile in the developed world; however, relative valuation and an expected depreciation in the greenback, particularly against other key developed-market currencies over the longer term, remain headwinds to the asset class.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on Canadian equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

The Canadian equity market’s exposure to commodities, whose prices are markedly higher than six months ago, provides attractive upside, making it an appealing asset class on a shorter-term basis. Despite a more modest long-term growth profile relative to the United States, we continue to find Canadian equities attractive because of their supportive dividend profile and reasonable valuations. From a currency perspective, an appreciating Canadian dollar could provide attractive short- and long-term support to the asset class.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a neutral stance on European equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

In our view, visibility around European equities remains shrouded by the fog of war. Valuations remain attractive relative to U.S. equities—risks around disruptions that are directly related to the conflict and the secondary effects of these dynamics fully justify the discount. In the intermediate term, we fully expect that any significant reduction in geopolitical risk, a resumption of the post-COVID-19 recovery, and ongoing fiscal support will lead to a period of outperformance. That said, there’s no evidence to suggest we could get there quickly. Longer term, the asset class offers an attractive dividend profile and a stronger euro would enhance its appeal; however, the region’s weak structural growth profile remains a meaningful offset to those tailwinds, thereby justifying a neutral stance.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately underweight stance on emerging-market equities in the short term, but a moderately overweight stance over the three- to five-year horizon.

This asset class is levered to manufacturing and global trade impulse, which remain constrained by supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, ongoing economic uncertainty in China, which represents a large part of the emerging-market (EM) equities universe, is also a concern, as are political issues in Brazil. All things considered, we believe a near-term neutral stance is warranted; however, evidence of improved supply chain dynamics and stabilizing global growth could materially improve the outlook for EM equities, especially in view of current valuations. We continue to believe that EM equities remain appealing from a strategic perspective. Valuations remain inexpensive, and the asset class’s growth and dividend profiles are attractive over our five-year forecast period. A structurally weaker U.S. dollar (USD) would also provide a modest tailwind to this asset class.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a neutral stance on Japanese equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Japanese equities should in theory provide an intriguing opportunity to investors: Any stabilization in global growth, the yen’s sizable depreciation so far this year, and continued massive monetary and fiscal support could provide upside to the asset class. We believe investors should be on the lookout for any evidence that the aforementioned factors have begun to drive performance. Structural factors in favor of Japanese equities include inexpensive valuation, a possible appreciation in the yen, continued improvement in corporate governance, and generous share buyback programs. Unfortunately, these factors are offset by Japan’s anemic growth profile. From a three- to five-year perspective, we continue to have a neutral view of the asset class, albeit with a slightly positive bias.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a neutral stance on Chinese equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Chinese equities underperformed in recent months as a result of deteriorating growth prospects. In our view, any signs that Beijing could be taking a step back from reforms that could undermine market sentiment, a relaxation of current COVID-zero policy, evidence that the current wave of coronavirus infection is flattening out, or a reacceleration in the global inventory cycle could lead to a period of outperformance. We’ve long maintained that Chinese growth will need to decelerate to enable the economy to rebalance from an industrial growth model to a more consumption-led model. We also expect the renminbi to depreciate modestly over the next three to five years. As such, we remain neutral on the asset class. 

    Fixed income

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately underweight stance on U.S. government bonds in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

A combination of high inflation and full employment has led the Fed to adopt a drastically different approach to monetary policy in the past few months, fully justifying an underweight stance in the U.S. fixed-income space. That said, we believe that market pricing of expected rate hikes is overdone, particularly against a backdrop characterized by—as we expect—slowing growth and some moderation in inflation, which could convince the Fed to make a dovish pivot in the second half of the year. Given that the asset class has just undergone a historic period of underperformance, we could experience a temporary reprieve in the coming months, which would justify a smaller underweight than we would previously have advocated for in the near term. Longer term, although the balance of risks has tilted more toward balanced, we maintain that the return profile for this asset class remains weak, especially when compared with other income-producing asset classes such as credit. 

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a neutral stance on Chinese equities in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

As with the United States, we believe that the BoC’s policy stance toward tightening is overly aggressive, especially since the balancing act the central bank needs to perform is arguably more delicate because it must take into account the high level of consumer leverage and long-standing concerns over the country’s residential real estate market. Our views on Canadian government bonds aren’t too different from our take on U.S. Treasuries: The asset class’s negative performance in the past few months and expectations that the BoC could make a dovish pivot in the second half of the year justify a smaller underweight stance than would’ve been the case otherwise in the short term. Over the longer term, the same arguments we used for U.S. fixed income also apply, albeit with one important exception: An appreciating Canadian dollar—which we expect will happen on a structural basis—will mean a slightly more attractive return profile (relative to U.S. Treasuries) for both Canadian sovereign debt and credit. 

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately underweight stance on developed-market bonds in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Although the European Central Bank has turned relatively hawkish recently, we expect European and Japanese interest rates to continue to lag relative to the United States. In our view, normalization will inevitably push European and Japanese rates higher, particularly at the longer end, which will likely translate into headwinds in both bond markets. Crucially, on a currency-adjusted basis, we find Japanese fixed income slightly more attractive than European fixed income. Separately, we expect monetary policy movements in the United Kingdom to foreshadow moves by other major central banks: The Bank of England has already noted its concerns over slowing growth, signaling that while it hasn’t finished tightening, at least a moderation could be forthcoming.

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on emerging-market bonds in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Being structurally overweight in EM debt remains one of our high-conviction views. Over the long term, we think the asset class could provide some of the most attractive expected total returns thanks to the relatively high level of expected income returns it offers—our expectations for a weaker USD over the longer term (five years) are also a contributing factor. Shorter term, we think the asset class continues to provide an attractive yield profile. That said, returns could be hurt by a strong USD and ongoing COVID-19-related disruptions and their overall impact on global growth in the near term. 

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on U.S. high-yield bonds in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

We maintain our favorable view of U.S. high-yield debt, largely due to the carry that the asset class offers. Spreads relative to U.S. Treasuries have widened somewhat and we’re concerned about the outlook for certain sectors should the economy stall. That said, we expect spreads to tighten should policy uncertainty (as well as inflation levels) recede during the second half of the year, as we expect, providing some incremental upside. 

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on U.S. investment-grade bonds in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

In our view, positive carry from the asset class remains attractive. Moreover, should inflation recede and the Fed pivots as expected, this asset class could benefit from the same dynamics as government bonds on a more short-term basis. While we think that U.S. high-yield debt has a more attractive return profile than investment-grade credit, it’s worth noting that the latter can be used as a tool for investors to add duration to their portfolios. In our view, higher-quality credit can be an attractive alternative to investors seeking refuge from current market volatility.

    Alternatives/real assets

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a neutral stance on U.S. real estate investment trusts in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) continue to offer a yield premium over fixed-income assets and attractive diversification benefits, which is appealing in an inflationary environment. In the shorter term, we expect the dispersion across subsectors (as we had mentioned previously) to continue as supply chain issues pause construction and therefore translate into supply-and-demand issues (i.e., raising prices), particularly in the residential and lab/life sciences space. On the other hand, the office sector continues to face headwinds as corporate America adjusts to a new model of flexible working in a postpandemic environment. For this reason, we have a neutral stance both in the short and long term.  

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on global natural resources in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

With oil prices reaching highs that have only occurred twice in the past 50 years and gas prices also spiking, there’s been considerable price momentum within the energy component of global natural resources. We think the recent swing in price movements is completely normal (within an uptrend) and doesn’t change our view in the short term.  While we acknowledge that energy prices, coupled with rising interest rates, will eventually hurt the consumer and lead to a wane in demand, we’re not seeing any signs of this yet going into the driving season in a supply-constrained environment. 

In the metals space, while off from late-March highs, we believe gold can continue to fare well over the intermediate term amid the inflationary environment and increased market volatility since the precious metal can offer inflation protection and diversification benefits. We also find other areas of the natural resources space equally compelling.  Geopolitical conflicts and the resulting sanctions, for instance, have dramatically reduced the global supply of chemicals, particularly fertilizers, causing prices to rise with little indication of slowing.      

As of April 28, 2022, the multi-asset solutions team has a moderately overweight stance on listed infrastructure in both the short term and over the three- to five-year horizon.

Listed infrastructure has become an increasingly interesting asset class that we believe deserves attention from a strategic asset allocation perspective. In our view, the asset class provides an attractive income alternative to what has been a low-yield environment. In addition, infrastructure improvement is a common policy plan within governments across the globe, which should be positive for returns for years to come. 

    Expected returns table

Developed-market equities: five-year forecast (%)

 

U.S. large cap

U.S. mid cap

U.S. small cap

Canada large cap

Canada small cap

EAFE large cap

EAFE small cap

Global large cap

Europe

Japan

Income return

  1.3

  1.2

  1.2

  2.5

1.7

  2.9

  2.5

  1.8

  2.9

  2.3

Nominal GDP/growth

  5.9

  6.5

  6.5

  4.9

5.5

  4.2

  4.6

  5.4

  3.6

  5.9

Valuation

–4.4

–0.6

–0.2

–1.1

–0.4

–0.7

–0.1

–3.3

–1.0

  0.3

Currency return (vs. USD)

  —

  —

  —

  0.9

  0.9

  1.6

  1.5

  0.5

 1.6

  1.4

Total return (USD)

  2.6

  7.1

  7.5

  7.3

  7.8

  8.1

  8.6

  4.3

  7.2

  9.9

 

Currency return (vs. CAD)

–0.9

–0.9

–0.9

  —

  —

  0.7

  0.6

–0.4

  0.7

  0.5

Total return (CAD)

  1.7

  6.1

  6.5

  6.3

  6.8

  7.1

  7.6

  3.4

  6.2

  8.9

Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of April 28, 2022. EAFE represents Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

Emerging-market equities: five-year forecast (%)

 

Emerging
markets

Emerging Latin America

Emerging EMEA

Emerging Asia

India

China

Hong Kong

Taiwan

S. Korea

Singapore

Income return

  2.4

  3.8

  3.3

  2.1

  1.1

  2.2

  3.0

  2.6

  2.1

  2.9

Nominal GDP/growth

  7.3

  5.6

  6.0

  7.7

  9.4

  6.7

  5.4

  8.5

  8.4

  4.5

Valuation

–0.6

  1.0

  1.5

–0.9

–3.0

  0.1

  0.8

–2.3

  0.3

–1.9

Currency return (vs. USD)

  0.3

–0.1

–1.5

  0.5

  0.5

  0.0

  —

  0.7

  1.6

  2.1

Total return (USD)

  9.4

 10.4

  9.2

  9.5

  7.8

  9.0

  9.3

  9.4

 12.7

  7.7

 

Currency return (vs. CAD)

–0.6

–1.0

–2.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.9

–0.9

–0.2

  0.7

  1.2

Total return (CAD)

  8.4

  9.4

  8.2

  8.5

  6.8

  8.0

  8.3

  8.4

 11.7

  6.7

Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of April 28, 2022. EMEA represents Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

Fixed income: five-year forecast (%)

 

U.S. investment grade

Canadian investment grade

U.S. high yield

U.S. leveraged loans

 U.S. TIPS

Emerging-market debt

Asia investment grade

Global gov’t bond

Income return

  3.6

  3.4

  7.2

  6.2

  0.3

  6.5

  4.1

  1.8

Price return

–1.0

–0.4

–3.1

–2.6

  0.3

–0.2

–0.5

–0.6

Currency return (vs. USD)

  —

  0.9

  —

  —

  —

  0.2

  0.9

  1.1

Total return (USD)

  2.6

  3.9

  4.0

  3.6

  0.6

  6.5

  4.5

  2.3

 

Currency return (vs. CAD)

–0.9

  —

–0.9

–0.9

–0.9

–0.7

–0.1

  0.2

Total return (CAD)

  1.7

  2.9

  3.1

  2.7

–0.3

  5.5

  3.5

  1.3

Source: Manulife Investment Management’s asset allocation team, as of October 2021. TIPS represent Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

Alternatives/real assets: five-year forecast (%)

 

U.S. REITs

Global natural resource equities

Global listed infrastructure

 

Income return

  2.9

  3.4

  3.5

 

Nominal GDP/growth

  2.4

  4.6

  4.3

 

Valuation

–2.1

–1.0

–0.5

 

Currency return (vs. USD)

  —

  0.4

  0.5

 

Total return (USD)

  3.1

  7.4

  7.8

 

 

 

Currency return (vs.

CAD)

–0.9

–0.5

–0.4

 

Total return (CAD)

  2.2

  6.4

  6.8

 
Source: Multi-asset solutions team, Manulife Investment Management, as of April 28, 2022. REITs represent real estate investment trusts. For more information, please refer to the important disclosures at the end.

1 Bloomberg, May 9, 2022.

Important disclosures

Model inputs are factors in Manulife Investment Management research and are not meant as predictions for any particular asset class, mutual fund, or investment vehicle. To initiate the investment process, the multi-asset solutions team formulates five-year, forward-looking risk and return expectations, developed through a variety of quantitative modeling techniques and complemented with qualitative and fundamental insight; assumptions are then adjusted for economic cycles and growth trend rates. The charts shown here may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and are only as current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different from that shown here.

The information in this material, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.

This material should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or to adopt any investment strategy. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.

All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Clients and prospects should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife Investment Management, nor any of its affiliates or representatives (collectively Manulife Investment Management) is providing tax, investment, or legal advice. 

This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.

Manulife Investment Management shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here.  This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation does not guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange-trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment.

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James Robertson, CIM

James Robertson, CIM, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Asset Allocation–Canada, and Global Head of Tactical Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management

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Alex Grassino

Alex Grassino, 

Head of Macro Strategy, North America, Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

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Nathan W. Thooft, CFA

Nathan W. Thooft, CFA, 

Chief Investment Officer, Senior Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management

Manulife Investment Management

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Robert E. Sykes, CFA

Robert E. Sykes, CFA, 

Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Asset Allocation, U.S., Multi-Asset Solutions Team

Manulife Investment Management

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Luke Browne

Luke Browne, 

Head of Asset Allocation, Asia

Manulife Investment Management

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Geoffrey Kelley, CFA

Geoffrey Kelley, CFA, 

Senior Portfolio Manager, Global Head of Strategic Asset Allocation, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, Manulife Investment Management 

Manulife Investment Management

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Benjamin W. Forssell, CFA

Benjamin W. Forssell, CFA, 

Client Portfolio Manager, Global Multi-Asset Team

Manulife Investment Management

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